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World briefing — September 12, 2026

As of 2026-09-12

What changed since yesterday

World trends

War & Conflict

The Houthis effectively completed their control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, pushing the Yemen-Red Sea conflict to its peak, while the US-Iran tanker war is settling into a war of attrition centred on Hormuz. Intensity for all 14 conflicts was kept unchanged from the previous update.

Geopolitics & Diplomacy

In the Middle East, fighting is intensifying on several fronts at once, with the Houthi-Saudi front added to the Iran-Israel/US front. In Hormuz, the US and Iran traded strikes on tankers, effectively nullifying the ceasefire, and in the Red Sea the Houthis have even seized the port of Mocha, consolidating control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and dealing a double shock to international shipping and oil prices.

Despite the visit of US envoys Witkoff and Kushner to mediate, the Ukraine war saw the three-day truce followed immediately on its expiry by a large-scale Russian air raid on Kyiv, again sapping diplomatic momentum. Meanwhile, Canada signed a '100-year partnership' with Zelensky, diversifying the axes of Western support for Ukraine.

In the Balkans, the EU-Serbia dispute over Mladic's funeral was elevated to a joint leaders' statement and spread into a debate over Serbia's eligibility for EU membership, while tensions inside Republika Srpska are also rising ahead of Bosnia's general election in October.

The UK-Israel diplomatic row has hardened into all-out sanctions and retaliation. Israel answered the settlement sanctions by closing the consulate and barring lawmakers from entering, and the rift between major Western countries and Israel appears to be becoming structural.

In the Indo-Pacific, as China's military pressure in the Taiwan Strait becomes routine at record warship numbers, the Philippine defence secretary's public rebuttal has taken the South China Sea war of words into a new phase. South Korea, the US and Japan finished the Freedom Edge exercise, and North Korea commissioned its second Choe Hyon-class destroyer and flagged a 'major naval milestone within eight months' (hinting at a nuclear-powered submarine), emerging as a new variable for tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

In the Americas, the US-Mexico war of words triggered by Trump's posting of a 'US territory' map escalated as it overlapped with the independence-day season, and the US-Canada tariff retaliation widened into embargoes on dairy, alcohol and motorcycles. By contrast, with Venezuela the details of the 65-billion-barrel oil deal were released, showing a contrasting trend.

On natural disasters, the death toll from the Nepal-Tibet border flood was revised up to the 1,100s with searches still under way, and Hawaii, hit by Hurricane Lowell, suffered two deaths and more than $400 million in damage, its second major hurricane strike this year.

Finance & Economy

As the US-Iran tanker war escalated to its largest scale of early September, WTI and Brent surged to around $100 and $108 respectively, and the US 10-year yield climbed to 4.96%, close to 5%, so an oil-driven rate shock dominated global financial markets in early September.

However, with the US August CPI released on 11 September largely in line with expectations and oil easing from its highs, risk sentiment calmed somewhat: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rebounded sharply by 0.86% and 0.96%, and the VIX fell 11.2% after an intraday spike.

That was only temporary relief, though. The ECB raised its deposit rate further to 2.50% on 10 September, sending the Bund yield to its highest since 2011 (3.45%), and the market is pricing the probability of a BOJ hike to 1.25% at its 17-18 September meeting at as much as 97%. The coordinated tightening stance of advanced-economy central banks is putting upward pressure on bond markets globally.

Taking the full brunt of this combined shock of high oil prices and high rates, the KOSPI gave up the 7,000 level again after three sessions, closing at 6,909.91. Foreign and institutional investors net sold ₩2.3 trillion and ₩1.2 trillion respectively, pulling the index down, and USD/KRW slid to ₩1,345.9, so won weakness continues.

The protectionist front intensified further. Right after Canada's retaliatory tariffs on US goods took effect (8 September), President Trump signed a proclamation banning all imports of Canadian motorcycles, dairy and alcohol (effective 29 September), taking the US-Canada trade war beyond tariffs into the import-ban stage. The fourth round of USMCA renegotiations with Mexico is also struggling over differences on the automotive rules-of-origin ratio, shaking the trade order among all three North American countries.

Argentina, by contrast, saw its country risk fall further to 484 points, continuing to improve on its own despite the headwind of surging US yields, while China's August exports jumped 25% year on year ($401.4 billion) on the AI infrastructure boom, spreading warmth across Asian supply chains.

Notably, both gold and Bitcoin, one a safe haven and the other a risk asset, weakened (gold -0.3% to -0.5%, Bitcoin below $78,000). This suggests that concern about higher-for-longer rates reduced the appeal of non-yielding gold while also weighing on risk-asset Bitcoin. As a side note, Apple's switch from Tim Cook to new CEO John Ternus as of 1 September is also big news worth noting in the technology sector.

Tech & Energy

As the Hormuz tanker war intensified, the US adopted a ‘tanker for tanker’ policy, striking Iranian tankers in retaliation for the first time, and Brent crude rose to $97 a barrel (a seven-week high). Commercial transit volumes are far below baseline and the risk rating remains ‘severe’.

South Korea's chip heavyweights (Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix) fell together on 11 September (-3.53% and -4.16%) in the wake of a US-led correction in AI and chip stocks, and the KOSPI fell 1.76% to 6,909.91, back to the 6,900 level. Signs that wariness over AI valuations is spreading across the global chip supply chain were also reflected in the domestic market.

After Apple formally unveiled its first foldable iPhone, the ‘Duo’, on 9 September, foreign media on 11 September gave largely favourable first impressions. The picture of expanded TSMC 2-nanometre production (target of 100,000 wafers a month this year, with Apple securing more than half of the initial volume) was reaffirmed.

Reports continue that TSMC has wrapped up negotiations with customers to raise 2027 prices for advanced and mature processes by up to 10% (up to 25% including an HPC premium), and a debate over an ‘AI tax’ passed on to Nvidia, Apple and others is heating up.

Nvidia strengthened its grip on the model ecosystem by acquiring open-source AI hub Hugging Face for $12.9 billion (made official on 3 September), and the Stargate project of OpenAI, Oracle and SoftBank has expanded with five new sites to a total of 7GW and more than $400 billion of investment.

China is accelerating self-reliance in chip equipment in response to US export controls, with Huawei leading field tests of domestic DUV lithography tools at SMIC and elsewhere (target of 12 units this year). As the exclusive foundry for Huawei's Ascend 910C, SMIC plans to double its 7nm capacity next year.

The UAE's state-backed AI company G42 is considering handing control to US capital to keep access to Nvidia's most advanced chips beyond the export-control grace period that expires in April 2027, while Saudi Aramco keeps raising the share of exports re-routed via Egypt under pressure from a dual blockade of Hormuz and the Red Sea.

Active conflicts

Key indicators

US Fed Funds Rate3.50-3.75% (midpoint 3.625, on hold) ―There is no FOMC meeting on 11 September (the next is Wednesday 16 September). The July meeting held rates by a 9-3 vote. Some Wall Street strategists (including J.P. Morgan Asset Management) have recently begun raising the possibility of a 0.25 percentage point hike in September.
S&P 5007,656.98 (+65.28pt, +0.86%) ▲Rebounded sharply as August CPI (+0.4% month on month, core +0.3%) was largely in line with expectations and oil gave back its spike, recovering a good part of the week's losses.
Nasdaq Composite26,333.04 (+251.31pt, +0.96%) ▲Rebounded, ending a four-session losing streak. Relief over CPI and calmer oil prices drove buying in tech stocks.
US 10-Year Yield~4.96% (highest since November 2023, nearing the psychological 5% barrier) ▲Up about 18-20bp on the week. Combined with a global bond sell-off (the Bund also spiked, to 3.45%), the approach to 5% is the talking point in the market.
VIX Volatility Index15.84 (-2.00pt, -11.21%) ▼It spiked at one point intraday to a 28-session high (on oil's surge and worries over inflation data clashing), but plunged by the close on an in-line CPI release and a pullback in oil. Also slightly lower than the previous reading (16.44).
Crude Oil (WTI / Brent)WTI ~$100.05 (-2.4%; some sources $99.66) / Brent $104.61 (-2.8%) ▲As the US-Iran tanker war intensified, WTI surged to $100 and Brent to $108 during the week (the highest since 19 May), before easing slightly on profit-taking on 11 September. Even so, prices remain higher than the previous reading (WTI $96.05 / Brent $101.21), with weekly gains of 9.4% for WTI and 8.7% for Brent. WTI's settlement differs slightly by source, from $99.66 to $100.05.
Gold~$4,361/oz (-0.3–0.5%) ▼Traded in a $4,359-4,385 range intraday. The slide continued for a third straight weekly decline, with prices hovering near a one-month low ahead of the CPI release.
Bitcoin~$77,000 (below $78,000) ▼Traded between $76,500 and $77,700 intraday, with an opening price of $76,535.95, down 2.2% from the previous day. With 24-hour trading the notion of a ‘close’ is vague, but the trend is lower than the previous reading ($78,000).
KRW/USD₩1,345.9 (+₩6.7) ▲Based on the Seoul FX market close (reported after 15:30; cross-checked by mt.co.kr, Financial News and Businesskorea). Oil price gains from the US-Iran armed clash and a surge in US long-term yields put pressure on the won.
JPY/USD~¥153.24 (NY close; rose to ¥154.48 intraday before pulling back) ▼Per Jiji Press, the dollar was at 153.94-154.04 yen around Tokyo noon, and the NY close was 153.24 yen, a further yen gain. The probability of a rise from 1.0% to 1.25% at the BOJ meeting on 17-18 September is priced at 97%, supporting the yen.
EUR/USDAbout 1.160 (near the weekly low, within a 1.159–1.162 range) ▼Pushed down by dollar strength ahead of the US CPI release, the pair slipped to 1.1590, near its weekly low. The ECB's 25bp hike on 10 September (deposit rate 2.50%) was already priced in.
KOSPI6,909.91 (-124.01p, -1.76%) ▼Fell back below 7,000 after just three sessions on the fallout from high oil prices and a spike in long-term US yields. Foreigners net sold about ₩2.2915 trillion and institutions about ₩1.2236 trillion, with individuals net buying ₩1.8658 trillion to cushion the fall. Programme selling was concentrated in large-cap chipmakers such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

Key relations

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