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World briefing — September 13, 2026

As of 2026-09-13

What changed since yesterday

World trends

War & Conflict

The US-Iran front widened to Saudi Arabia itself with strikes on the kingdom's East-West oil pipeline, and Israel postponed new talks with Lebanon until October after a large-scale strike on Nabatieh. After a Russian 500-drone assault and the fallout from the violation of Polish airspace, NATO launched a standing response system called Eastern Sentry. Intensity for all 14 conflicts was kept unchanged from the previous update.

Geopolitics & Diplomacy

In the Middle East, the US-Iran front is spreading into a three-way theatre (Hormuz, the Red Sea and the Saudi mainland) as Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline was hit. President Trump pointed to Iran as being behind it, but on the same day the Houthis also signalled restraint on escalation, telling the US they 'have no intention to fight'.

In Lebanon, after Israel's large-scale bombardment of Nabatieh, President Aoun rejected new negotiations, and the planned US-mediated Israel-Lebanon talks were pushed to October, prolonging the diplomatic deadlock.

In Eastern Europe, immediately after the three-day truce ended, Russia hit Ukraine again with about 500 drones, and in the wake of the earlier violation of Polish airspace NATO formally launched 'Eastern Sentry', a standing response framework, raising air-defence readiness on the eastern flank.

In the Indo-Pacific, the BRICS summit in New Delhi adopted a joint declaration urging restraint in the Middle East and a trilateral meeting of Xi Jinping, Putin and Modi took place, showcasing the non-Western bloc's cohesion. North Korea retaliated by firing a projectile into the East Sea one day after the end of the South Korea-US-Japan 'Freedom Edge' exercise, and the Philippines and China continued their war of words over the South China Sea.

In the Balkans, the aftershocks of the EU-Serbia dispute over Mladic's funeral, elevated to a joint leaders' statement, continue, and tensions inside Republika Srpska remain high ahead of Bosnia's general election in October.

The UK-Israel diplomatic row remains an all-out exchange of sanctions and retaliation. The pattern in which Israel answered the settlement sanctions by closing the consulate and barring lawmakers from entering continues unchanged.

On natural disasters, the casualty count for the Nepal-Tibet border flood (Nepal 1,114 dead, Tibet 16 dead) was reconfirmed, and Hawaii is recovering from the damage of Hurricane Lowell.

Finance & Economy

With markets closed on Sunday (13 September), the 12 market indicators kept their regular-session closes from Friday 11 September. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq retain their sharp rebounds (+0.86% and +0.96%) on the in-line CPI and calmer oil, and the VIX its 11.2% plunge.

Only Bitcoin, which trades around the clock, was updated: it dipped as low as $76,000 in Saturday's Asian session, rebounded to near $80,000 on a short squeeze, then settled in the $77,200-77,400 range.

The coordinated tightening stance of advanced-economy central banks continues. The ECB raised rates another 25bp on 10 September, pushing the Bund yield to its highest since 2009, and a 25bp BOJ hike at its 18 September meeting (to 1.25%, the highest in 31 years) is becoming the market consensus.

The KOSPI again gave up the 7,000 level on 11 September amid foreign net selling of ₩2.3 trillion and institutional net selling of ₩1.2 trillion, closing at 6,909.91. A claim that DeepSeek's new model cuts HBM demand by 75% is cited as one factor in the sharp fall in large-cap chip stocks, putting cracks in the memory supercycle narrative.

The protectionist front intensified further. Right after Canada's retaliatory tariffs on US goods took effect, the US decided to enforce a ban on imports of Canadian motorcycles, dairy and alcohol from 29 September, and the fourth round of USMCA renegotiations with Mexico continues to struggle over differences on the automotive rules-of-origin ratio.

Argentina's country risk, meanwhile, stayed in the 484-485 point range, its lowest in a month, and China's August exports jumped 25% year on year (semiconductor exports 104%), spreading the AI-infrastructure tailwind across Asian supply chains.

Intel subsidiary Altera's push for an IPO of more than $2 billion and TSMC's record August sales (+53.3% year on year) support expectations of an improving AI-chip cycle, while DeepSeek's claim of HBM efficiency gains sends the opposite signal to that optimism, a contrasting picture.

Tech & Energy

Even as the Hormuz tanker war continues, a GCC-Iran diplomatic track has restarted in Oman, with interim arrangements on navigation due to be discussed, and international oil prices stopped rallying near $100 a barrel.

Ripples spread through the memory industry after China's DeepSeek claimed its new model ‘V4.1 Flash’ cut HBM demand by up to 75%. Concern has emerged that if memory efficiency in AI models proves to be a structural trend, HBM expansion plans at Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix could turn into overinvestment, and this is cited as one factor behind the 11 September plunge in chip heavyweights.

Nvidia announced a partnership with eight Australian data-centre and cloud companies, including Firmus, IREN and Sharon AI, to build AI factories of up to 2GW by 2027, more than doubling Australia's existing computing capacity.

Helped by AI chip demand, TSMC's August revenue jumped 53.3% from a year earlier to a record, and it announced a joint initiative with ASML on large photomasks and a High-NA EUV transition, aimed at introducing advanced processes in 2033. Its plan to raise 2027 advanced-process prices by up to 10% also stands.

Intel is preparing an IPO of its FPGA subsidiary Altera worth more than $2 billion, and separately is reportedly considering a third CPU price rise this year (up to 10%) citing higher supply-chain costs, adding to expectations of an improving chip cycle.

Japan secured an additional ¥100 billion government investment in Rapidus and new investment from 32 private companies including Sony, Toyota and SoftBank (¥2.35 trillion in total), and 2nm GAA test wafers have hit their target electrical characteristics, continuing stabilisation towards the 2027 mass-production goal.

China is continuing to accelerate self-reliance in chip equipment in response to US export controls, with Huawei leading field tests of domestic DUV lithography tools at SMIC and elsewhere (target of 12 units this year).

Active conflicts

Key indicators

US Fed Funds Rate3.50-3.75% (midpoint 3.625, on hold) ―Previous figure carried over because of the Sunday closure. The next FOMC is scheduled for Wednesday 16 September. (Note: the 12 September series.json still holds a value wrongly parsed as 3.5; it was not retroactively corrected and is only noted here.)
S&P 5007,656.98 (+65.28pt, +0.86%) ―Friday 11 September regular-session close carried over; no new close because of the weekend market holiday (Sunday/Monday rule).
Nasdaq Composite26,333.04 (+251.31pt, +0.96%) ―The 11 September (Fri) regular-session close is retained. Markets closed for the weekend.
US 10-Year Yield~4.96% (highest since November 2023, nearing the psychological 5% barrier) ―Previous reading carried over because the bond market is closed for the weekend. No unusual moves confirmed.
VIX Volatility Index15.84 (-2.00pt, -11.21%) ―Friday 11 September regular-session close carried over.
Crude Oil (WTI / Brent)WTI ~$100.05 (-2.4%; some sources $99.66) / Brent $104.61 (-2.8%) ―Physical futures markets are closed for the weekend. The previous regular-session close is retained.
Gold~$4,361/oz (-0.3–0.5%) ―Precious-metals futures markets are closed for the weekend. The previous regular-session close is retained.
Bitcoin~$77,300 (24H +0.5–0.6%) ▲In Saturday's (12 September) Asian session it briefly slid to $76,000, rebounded to near $80,000 on a short squeeze, then stabilised in a $77,200-77,400 range, with three or more sources in agreement.
KRW/USD₩1,345.9 (+₩6.7) ―The domestic FX market is closed for the weekend. The 11 September (Fri) close is retained.
JPY/USD~¥153.24 (NY close; rose to ¥154.48 intraday before pulling back) ―FX markets are closed for the weekend, so the previous New York close is retained.
EUR/USDAbout 1.160 (near the weekly low, within a 1.159–1.162 range) ―FX markets closed for the weekend. The last New York closing level holds.
KOSPI6,909.91 (-124.01p, -1.76%) ―Close from the regular session on Friday 11 September carried over (Korean markets closed). Backdrop: foreign net selling of ₩2.3 trillion and institutional net selling of ₩1.2 trillion.

Key relations

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