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World briefing — September 26, 2026

As of 2026-09-26

What changed since yesterday

World trends

War & Conflict

As of 26 September 2026 (KST): After an Ethiopian government drone strike on Alamata (14 civilians killed), the Tigray Defence Forces (TDF) seized three airports, at Axum, Shire and Mekelle, reigniting full-scale war after two years, and intensity was raised to war. On the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, airstrikes and clashes ended a three-month lull, and intensity was raised to medium. Iran presented the US with a roadmap to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days, but the tanker war continues, and Russia struck Kyiv again (2 dead) right after the Zelensky-Trump meeting. The Yemeni Houthis claimed attacks on Riyadh and Yanbu on Saudi National Day, and the Sudanese army struck RSF positions in Nyala for the first time in months. Ceasefire violations continued in Gaza and Lebanon.

Geopolitics & Diplomacy

At the Trump-Xi summit at the White House on 24 September, the US and China extended the trade truce, due to expire on 10 November, by two months to 10 January 2027. The opening of the first US-China AI dialogue channel in New York was also confirmed, but rare earths, semiconductor export controls and the Taiwan issue were pushed to the next round without specific agreement.

In the South China Sea, on 25 September China's coast guard and navy obstructed a resupply mission to Philippine troops stationed at Second Thomas Shoal, producing the first hostile clash in two years. Air strikes and fighting also resumed on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, ending a three-month lull, and in Ethiopia Tigrayan rebels seized three airports, reigniting the civil war in full.

Large-scale natural disasters and health crises overlapped. The death toll from Japan's Typhoon Dujuan rose from 6 to 12, and Congo's Ebola outbreak spread to two new health zones, bringing cumulative totals to 7,890 confirmed cases and 3,799 deaths. The toll from the Java Sea ferry sinking in Indonesia keeps being revised up, to 26-28 dead and around 100 missing.

On the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, Iran conveyed to the US via Qatar a roadmap to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days. It set conditions of a full ceasefire and the release of about $12 billion in frozen assets, but whether the White House has formally accepted it has yet to be confirmed.

At the UN General Assembly, Turkish President Erdogan called for international recognition of the unrecognised 'Northern Cyprus', and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu rebutted him head-on, calling him a 'dictator', while showing closeness to Greece. Poland stepped up preventive patrols of its eastern airspace in response to repeated Russian provocations.

Finance & Economy

On Friday 25 September, Wall Street rebounded despite surging Treasury yields, with the S&P 500 closing at 7,743.41 (+0.51%) and the Nasdaq at 27,068.72 (+0.5%), ending the week higher. However, the US 10-year yield jumped to 5.17%, setting a new high since 2007, and the VIX rose to 15.67.

Oil gave back its five-session gain on hopes for US-Iran talks, with WTI at $92.41 (-2.33%), its first weekly decline since late August. Gold figures differed between sources, but it was effectively flat at around $4,300.

France announced a forecast of a 119.3% debt-to-GDP ratio for 2026, and its 10-year yield rose above 4.5% for the first time since 2008. The spread over Germany widened to its largest since the 2012 eurozone crisis, deepening the budget crisis.

South Korea's KOSPI and won markets were closed on 24-25 September for the Chuseok holiday (reopening on 28 September). On 23 September, the last trading day before the holiday, the KOSPI closed at 7,080.92 (+0.90%) on strength in chips and large caps, and USD/KRW was effectively flat at ₩1,358.4.

Emerging markets were mixed. Argentina's country risk hit a new five-month high of 578 points, while in Australia expectations of a 25bp hike jumped to 90% ahead of the RBA's 29 September meeting. The two-month extension of the US-China trade truce at the Trump-Xi summit also helped market sentiment.

Tech & Energy

At the Trump-Xi summit at the White House on 24 September, the US and China confirmed they had opened the first AI dialogue channel in New York, but chip export controls and rare earths were not newly settled at this meeting and remain unresolved (some media reports of a ‘one-year grace period’ were confirmed to be a mix-up with the October 2025 Busan agreement).

Overnight on 24-25 September, Ukraine simultaneously struck Lukoil's refinery in Perm, Russia (about 1,500km from the border, among its longest-range strikes ever), and the Novoshakhtinsk refinery, among others, halting operations. Russia's fuel shortage is expected to worsen further.

On 23 September the Italian Senate passed an enabling bill to reintroduce nuclear power by 81 votes to 51 with 7 abstentions, confirming Italy's return to nuclear power about 40 years after the 1987 referendum that ended it. The backdrop is surging power demand from AI data centres and a desire to cut energy import dependence.

Iran presented the US with a roadmap to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days. The strait is on about day 208-209 of the blockade and transit volumes remain extremely low compared with normal times, so if the roadmap is realised it could have a major impact on the energy supply chain.

In Taiwan, talk of a cut of up to 15% to TSMC's performance bonuses prompted internal pushback. The cost burden of investing in new fabs in the US and elsewhere, despite record first-quarter net profit, is cited as the backdrop.

Active conflicts

Key indicators

US Fed Funds Rate3.75~4.00% ―Unchanged since the 16 September FOMC raised rates by 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, the first hike since 2023. The probability of another 25bp hike in October rose to 68.6% (55.4% a week earlier) on CME FedWatch, reinforcing hawkish expectations.
S&P 5007,743.41 (+0.51%) ▲On Friday 25 September, the last session of the week, stocks rebounded despite surging Treasury yields and closed the week higher (CNBC reported the Dow up 478.64 points, +0.93%, matching the direction). A small outlet (chickstockfi), however, reported a slight 0.07% decline, so there is a small discrepancy.
Nasdaq Composite27,068.72 (+0.5%) ▲Closed up 0.5% on 25 September (Fri). As with the S&P 500, the direction matches CNBC's “stocks notch winning week” report. It is slightly below the 22 September level (after the mid-week surge in yields).
US 10-Year Yield~5.16–5.17% ▲On 23 September it entered the 5.10% range intraday (the highest since July 2007), and on 25 September it stayed near its peak late in the week at 5.163% (CNBC) and in the 5.17% range (Invezz). Global government bonds (Japan, UK, Germany) weakened in tandem.
VIX Volatility Index15.67 ▲Up from 14.87 on 22 September. Reflects a rise in volatility from the spike in yields.
Crude Oil (WTI / Brent)WTI ~$92.41 (-2.33%) / Brent ~$105 (-1.4%) ▼Fell on 25 September on hopes of a US-Iran ceasefire. WTI went from $94.61 on Thursday to a Friday official close of $92.41 (-7.87% on the week, the first weekly decline since late August). Brent was near $105 (-1.4% on the day) but stayed at elevated levels above $100.
Gold~$4,300/oz (around the 25 September close) ―Sources initially conflicted on direction, but on recheck the actual 25 September close was in a $4,297-4,309 range, virtually the same as the previous reading ($4,307-4,310), so it is confirmed as flat.
Bitcoin~$84,400–85,200 ▼From early to mid-morning ET on 25 September it fluctuated in a $84,378-85,200 range, slightly lower than the previous $86,000-86,600. Expectations of further Fed rate hikes are putting downward pressure on crypto.
KRW/USD₩1,358.4 (23 September close) ―The domestic FX market (Seoul Money Brokerage) was effectively closed on 24-25 September for the Chuseok holiday and is due to reopen on Monday 28 September. The close on the last trading day, 23 September, was ₩1,358.4 (+₩0.2 from the previous day), nearly flat from 22 September.
JPY/USD~157–¥158 ―Slight discrepancy between sources (157.14 yen vs 157.96 yen, a gap of about 0.5%). Dollar strength on hawkish Fed expectations and yen strength on BOJ tightening expectations are in conflict, producing a narrow range.
EUR/USD~1.137–1.139 ▼Down from the previous 1.1466. The sign of the day's move differs by source (+0.07% to 1.1389 versus -0.07% to 1.1372, both within the 1.137–1.139 range), but the direction (a weekly decline) is consistent. The backdrop is expectations of another Fed hike in October and the dollar hitting a two-month high.
KOSPI7,080.92 (+0.90%, 23 September close) ▲KRX is closed on Thursday 24 and Friday 25 September for the Chuseok holiday and reopens on Monday 28 September. On 23 September, the last session before the holiday, the KOSPI rose 63.01 points (+0.90%) to close near 7,080, lifted by chip and large-cap stocks despite selling by individuals and foreigners.

Key relations

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