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World briefing — September 27, 2026

As of 2026-09-27

What changed since yesterday

World trends

War & Conflict

As of Sunday 27 September 2026 (KST): President Trump formally rejected Iran's roadmap to reopen Hormuz within 7 days on Saturday 26 September and hinted at a possible resumption of strikes after the midterms, tightening the tanker-war phase again. Russia carried out a major renewed strike on Kyiv and elsewhere with 173 drones and missiles (at least 7 dead), and Ukraine retaliated against Russian refineries (including Ilsky). In Ethiopia, confirmation that the TPLF has joined a survival alliance has raised fears of full civil war to the point that the UN is stepping in with diplomacy to prevent escalation, and in Yemen the conflict has widened into a multi-front war in which the Houthis face both Saudi Arabia and the internal PLC government forces at once (the PLC declared general mobilisation). Sudan's army recaptured Soda in North Kordofan, but drone strikes by both sides continued to hit civilians.

Geopolitics & Diplomacy

At the Trump-Xi summit at the White House on 24 September, the US and China extended the trade truce, due to expire on 10 November, by two months to 10 January 2027. The opening of the first US-China AI dialogue channel in New York was also confirmed, but rare earths, semiconductor export controls and the Taiwan issue were pushed to the next round without specific agreement.

In the South China Sea, on 25 September China's coast guard and navy obstructed a resupply mission to Philippine troops stationed at Second Thomas Shoal, producing the first hostile clash in two years. Air strikes and fighting also resumed on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, ending a three-month lull, and in Ethiopia Tigrayan rebels seized three airports, reigniting the civil war in full.

Large-scale natural disasters and health crises overlapped. The death toll from Japan's Typhoon Dujuan rose from 6 to 12, and Congo's Ebola outbreak spread to two new health zones, bringing cumulative totals to 7,890 confirmed cases and 3,799 deaths. The toll from the Java Sea ferry sinking in Indonesia keeps being revised up, to 26-28 dead and around 100 missing.

On the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, Iran conveyed to the US via Qatar a roadmap to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days. It set conditions of a full ceasefire and the release of about $12 billion in frozen assets, but whether the White House has formally accepted it has yet to be confirmed.

At the UN General Assembly, Turkish President Erdogan called for international recognition of the unrecognised 'Northern Cyprus', and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu rebutted him head-on, calling him a 'dictator', while showing closeness to Greece. Poland stepped up preventive patrols of its eastern airspace in response to repeated Russian provocations.

Finance & Economy

On Friday 25 September, Wall Street rebounded despite surging Treasury yields, with the S&P 500 closing at 7,743.41 (+0.51%) and the Nasdaq at 27,068.72 (+0.5%), ending the week higher. However, the US 10-year yield jumped to 5.17%, setting a new high since 2007, and the VIX rose to 15.67.

Oil gave back its five-session gain on hopes for US-Iran talks, with WTI at $92.41 (-2.33%), its first weekly decline since late August. Gold figures differed between sources, but it was effectively flat at around $4,300.

France announced a forecast of a 119.3% debt-to-GDP ratio for 2026, and its 10-year yield rose above 4.5% for the first time since 2008. The spread over Germany widened to its largest since the 2012 eurozone crisis, deepening the budget crisis.

South Korea's KOSPI and won markets were closed on 24-25 September for the Chuseok holiday (reopening on 28 September). On 23 September, the last trading day before the holiday, the KOSPI closed at 7,080.92 (+0.90%) on strength in chips and large caps, and USD/KRW was effectively flat at ₩1,358.4.

Emerging markets were mixed. Argentina's country risk hit a new five-month high of 578 points, while in Australia expectations of a 25bp hike jumped to 90% ahead of the RBA's 29 September meeting. The two-month extension of the US-China trade truce at the Trump-Xi summit also helped market sentiment.

Tech & Energy

At the Trump-Xi summit at the White House on 24 September, the US and China confirmed they had opened the first AI dialogue channel in New York, but chip export controls and rare earths were not newly settled at this meeting and remain unresolved (some media reports of a ‘one-year grace period’ were confirmed to be a mix-up with the October 2025 Busan agreement).

Overnight on 24-25 September, Ukraine simultaneously struck Lukoil's refinery in Perm, Russia (about 1,500km from the border, among its longest-range strikes ever), and the Novoshakhtinsk refinery, among others, halting operations. Russia's fuel shortage is expected to worsen further.

On 23 September the Italian Senate passed an enabling bill to reintroduce nuclear power by 81 votes to 51 with 7 abstentions, confirming Italy's return to nuclear power about 40 years after the 1987 referendum that ended it. The backdrop is surging power demand from AI data centres and a desire to cut energy import dependence.

Iran presented the US with a roadmap to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days. The strait is on about day 208-209 of the blockade and transit volumes remain extremely low compared with normal times, so if the roadmap is realised it could have a major impact on the energy supply chain.

In Taiwan, talk of a cut of up to 15% to TSMC's performance bonuses prompted internal pushback. The cost burden of investing in new fabs in the US and elsewhere, despite record first-quarter net profit, is cited as the backdrop.

Active conflicts

Key indicators

US Fed Funds Rate3.75~4.00% ―Unchanged, as Sunday is a market holiday. Rates remain at the level set by the 16 September FOMC hike; there is no newly confirmed update to the probability of another 25bp hike in October (CME FedWatch), which stood at 68.6%.
S&P 5007,743.41 (+0.51%) ―Based on the Friday 25 September close; no update because markets are closed on Saturday and Sunday.
Nasdaq Composite27,068.72 (+0.5%) ―Based on the 25 September (Fri) close; no update as markets are closed for the weekend.
US 10-Year Yield~5.16–5.17% ―Based on the Friday 25 September close; no update because markets are closed for the weekend. However, news on Saturday 26 September that Trump rejected Iran's 7-day truce proposal may affect oil and safe-haven demand after Monday's open (not reflected in the value).
VIX Volatility Index15.67 ―Based on the 25 September (Fri) close; no update as markets are closed for the weekend.
Crude Oil (WTI / Brent)WTI ~$92.41 (-2.33%) / Brent ~$105 (-1.4%) ―Based on the 25 September (Fri) close; no update as markets are closed for the weekend (excluding futures gaps). However, multiple outlets (Washington Times, Inquirer, RealClearWorld) reported that on Saturday 26 September Trump rejected Iran's proposal for a seven-day ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; the geopolitical risk premium is back in focus, which could put upward pressure on oil at Monday's regular-session open. As the official close is not yet set, the value is not changed arbitrarily.
Gold~$4,300/oz (around the 25 September close) ―Based on the 25 September (Fri) close; no update as markets are closed for the weekend.
Bitcoin~$83,900–84,100 ▼Prices as of Saturday 26 September converged at $83,800-84,100 (CoinDesk $83,974, Coinbase $84,027, CoinGecko $83,801, Investing.com $84,072), slightly lower than the previous $84,400-85,200. It rallied to the $87,000s at one point during the week before correcting.
KRW/USD₩1,358.4 (23 September close) ―No update is possible as the Chuseok holiday closure continues through 24-26 September, with the market due to reopen on Monday 28 September. The 23 September close is retained.
JPY/USD~157–¥158 ―A check of offshore prices put the dollar at 157.1-157.3 yen as of 26 September, within the previous range (157-158 yen) with no clear breakout, so the value is retained.
EUR/USD~1.137–1.139 ―Quotes for 26–27 September showed 1.1382–1.1387, within the previous range (1.137–1.139) with no clear break, so the value is retained.
KOSPI7,080.92 (+0.90%, 23 September close) ―No update is possible as the Chuseok holiday closure continues through 24-26 September, with the market due to reopen on Monday 28 September. The 23 September close is retained.

Key relations

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