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World briefing — September 28, 2026

As of 2026-09-28

What changed since yesterday

World trends

War & Conflict

As of Sunday 27 September 2026 (KST): President Trump formally rejected Iran's roadmap to reopen Hormuz within 7 days on Saturday 26 September and hinted at a possible resumption of strikes after the midterms, tightening the tanker-war phase again. Russia carried out a major renewed strike on Kyiv and elsewhere with 173 drones and missiles (at least 7 dead), and Ukraine retaliated against Russian refineries (including Ilsky). In Ethiopia, confirmation that the TPLF has joined a survival alliance has raised fears of full civil war to the point that the UN is stepping in with diplomacy to prevent escalation, and in Yemen the conflict has widened into a multi-front war in which the Houthis face both Saudi Arabia and the internal PLC government forces at once (the PLC declared general mobilisation). Sudan's army recaptured Soda in North Kordofan, but drone strikes by both sides continued to hit civilians.

Geopolitics & Diplomacy

President Trump publicly rejected Iran's 'reopen Hormuz within seven days' roadmap on 26 September, but on 27 September Iranian President Pezeshkian said in a CBS interview that Iran could allow UN nuclear inspectors to return within a new framework for an agreement, a limited conciliatory signal amid a hard-line standoff. The IAEA reconfirmed that Iran holds 60%-enriched uranium and is blocking inspection access.

In Ethiopia's civil war, the front has widened to the Amhara and Afar borders since the Tigray Defence Forces (TDF) seized three airports (23 September). Government claims of mass killings, coupled with civilians fleeing Mekelle and a communications blackout, are deepening fears that the 2022 peace agreement is collapsing.

An unexpected diplomatic row broke out between South Korea and Ukraine. When Ukraine publicly disclosed the transfer of North Korean prisoners of war at the UN General Assembly, Seoul protested that this breached a confidential agreement, and Ukraine denied the agreement existed, turning it into an issue of trust.

In the Balkans, Bosnia's Constitutional Court ruled unconstitutional, and thereby blocked, payments by Republika Srpska for separatist lobbying. Serb-Bosniak tensions are rising again ahead of the 4 October general election.

Natural disasters and health crises persist. The death toll from the Java Sea ferry sinking in Indonesia rose to 64, with 71 still missing. Recovery from the Nepal-Tibet flood and the Congo Ebola outbreak stays at its existing scale with no new statistics.

Finance & Economy

The New York and Seoul regular sessions had not yet opened on Monday, so 11 of the 12 indicators were left flat at their closes from Friday 25 September and Wednesday 23 September (before Chuseok). Only Bitcoin, which trades around the clock, edged higher to about $84,500.

The France-Germany bond yield spread stayed above 100bp, and concern over a French fiscal crisis has not subsided.

Argentina's country risk (JPMorgan EMBI) rose above 600bp to a six-month high, reviving concern over 2027 financing.

Brazil's central bank cut its 2026 growth forecast from 2.0% to 1.8% (1.4% for 2027).

Iran's rejection of a Hormuz roadmap mixed with partial conciliatory signals from the Iranian side, leaving safe-haven assets such as oil and gold without a clear direction until regular sessions resume.

Tech & Energy

On 26 September Ukraine attacked the Ilsky refinery in Russia's Krasnodar region with drones, causing a fire and killing three people. On 20 September Russia had said it shot down a record 1,110 drones in a single night, so the exchange over refining infrastructure continues.

South Korea's chip exports in September jumped 259% from a year earlier (47.8% of total exports), and third-quarter earnings forecasts for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix were also raised, indicating the AI memory supercycle is continuing.

In Japan, taking advantage of Toshiba's sale of part of its Kioxia stake (14.06% to 12.84%), SK Hynix emerged as Kioxia's largest shareholder through a Bain Capital consortium.

Taiwan's TSMC broke ground on the Baifu industrial park in Kaohsiung (21 September) and enlisted its domestic chip equipment and materials partners in a push to build a one-stop R&D-validation-mass production ecosystem.

The EU discussed a draft ‘European Chips Act 2.0’ aimed at reducing its dependence on foreign chips at a Competitiveness Council meeting on 24-25 September, with Germany stepping forward as the largest contributor of funds.

The IAEA's lack of inspection access to Iran's nuclear programme was reconfirmed on 27 September, so uncertainty over the nuclear issue persists separately from the tanker war.

Active conflicts

Key indicators

US Fed Funds Rate3.75~4.00% ―As of Sunday evening (before the New York regular session opens), no new FOMC decision. Rates remain at the level set by the 16 September meeting hike, and the market continues to price in the possibility of another hike in October.
S&P 5007,743.41 (+0.51%) ―Friday 25 September regular-session close. Monday's close is not yet available, as the New York regular session has yet to open. Multiple outlets, including Newspim, reported that all three major indices rose in that session (Dow +0.93%), reconfirming the direction.
Nasdaq Composite27,068.72 (+0.5%) ―Regular-session close on 25 September (Fri); no update as it is before the open. The direction of the gain matches reports from multiple outlets.
US 10-Year Yield~5.16–5.17% ―Based on the Friday 25 September close; no update because the market is yet to open. A separate outlet reported 5.196% (the highest in 19 years), which cross-checks within an approximate range.
VIX Volatility Index15.67 ―Based on the Friday 25 September close; no update because the market is yet to open. Reconfirmed with official Cboe data.
Crude Oil (WTI / Brent)WTI ~$92.41 (-2.33%) / Brent ~$105 (-1.4%) ―The 25 September (Fri) regular-session close is retained. CME Globex reopened from around 18:00 ET on Sunday, so intraday prices are mixed (for example, conflicting snapshots of WTI in a $90-94 range), but with Monday's official close not yet available, the value is unchanged. After reports on 26 September that Trump rejected Iran's seven-day ceasefire proposal, upward pressure on oil after the open remains a possibility.
Gold~$4,300/oz (around the 25 September close) ―Gold closed near $4,300 an ounce on 25 September (Fri), down about 2% on the week; no update as it is before the open. Domestic gold prices in South Korea were reported as little changed.
Bitcoin~$84,300–84,700 ▲Live update as a 24-hour trading asset. Prices as of 27-28 September converged at $84,300-84,700 (CoinDesk $84,602, Coinbase $84,728, CoinGecko $84,315-84,759 via MetaMask, Bybit $84,464), a slight rebound from the previous reading (26 September, $83,900-84,100).
KRW/USD₩1,358.4 (23 September close) ―Closed 24-26 September for the Chuseok holiday; reopening at 9am on Monday 28 September confirmed (multiple outlets). Monday's close is not yet available. The 23 September close is retained.
JPY/USD~157–¥158 ―FX markets trade around the clock; a check of early Asian session prices put the dollar at 157.23 yen on 25 September, within the previous range (157-158 yen). No clear breakout.
EUR/USD~1.137–1.139 ―Multiple sources showed 1.1382–1.1397, staying within the previous range (1.137–1.139).
KOSPI7,080.92 (+0.90%, 23 September close) ―Reopening at 09:00 on Monday 28 September after the Chuseok holiday closure is confirmed (multiple outlets). Monday's close is not yet available. The 23 September close carries over.

Key relations

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