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World briefing — October 24, 2026

As of 2026-10-24

What changed since yesterday

World trends

War & Conflict

As of Friday 23 October. On Iran, the Revolutionary Guards claimed to have hit seven tankers in Hormuz on 22 October, but UKMTO has not confirmed this and Trump disputed it (unconfirmed). The Houthis fired a ballistic missile at Riyadh again in the early hours of 23 October, which was intercepted, and Brent is at $116.72, the highest since April. In Russia-Ukraine, Peskov said trilateral talks are planned for the first half of November in Abu Dhabi. In Haiti, gangs ambushed Salvadoran troops serving in the gang suppression force, and Bukele announced a rescue operation.

Geopolitics & Diplomacy

Russia-Ukraine: at the 21 October Witkoff-Putin meeting, they agreed in principle to resume three-way talks after 10 November (Abu Dhabi mentioned) and an American prisoner was released. Zelensky wants early November and is cautious. A report of a large-scale strike on Kyiv right after the meeting limits trust.

Iran: Araghchi reconfirmed that the Hormuz closure will be maintained until the seven-day plan and the Islamabad MOU are implemented. Indirect talks via Pakistan and Qatar continue, but Trump hinted at renewed attacks and the IRGC threatened US bases, raising tensions.

Gulf: after Riyadh, the Houthis attacked King Fahd airport in Dammam, and Al Jazeera reported 2 dead on 22 October. Saudi-Yemen tensions are widening.

Elections: Serbia (25 October general election, Vucic challenging for prime minister), Bulgaria (25 October presidential election) and Israel (27 October general election) are imminent. The latest poll figures for all three could not be confirmed.

Diplomacy: Canadian Prime Minister Carney made his first bilateral visit to Turkey (21-23 October), discussing energy, defence and a free trade agreement.

Health: Congo's government tally for Ebola is more than 8,400 cases and over 4,000 deaths, with Kenya's first confirmed case and death (6 October). New figures for 22 October are unconfirmed.

The Russia three-way talks (planned for Abu Dhabi in the first half of November), indirect Iran talks, Brazil's run-off (25 October, a tight race), Serbia's general election (25 October), Israel's general election (27 October) and the US midterms (3 November) continue. A magnitude 7.0 earthquake in Tibet (22 October, 16 deaths reported) is a single-source report and needs further confirmation.

Finance & Economy

New York on Friday 23 October was driven by a surge in oil. The S&P 500 closed at 7,623.68 (-0.52%), the Nasdaq at 25,955.34 (-0.21%) and the Dow at 52,215.16 (-1.23%); tech selling calmed after the previous day's 2.6% plunge, but Brent at $116.72 (+3.1%, the highest since April) and WTI at $103.27 spread the burden to large caps. The 10-year yield was near 4.98%, knocking on the 5% threshold again (small differences between sources). Gold was about $4,008 for the COMEX December contract, its biggest weekly drop since June; the KOSPI fell as much as 4.12% intraday before closing at 5,550.30 (+0.30%) on a rebound in SK Hynix, and the Nikkei closed at 62,693.16 (-0.34%), its lowest close since late July. There are reports that Taiwan's market was closed because of a typhoon. The 27-28 October FOMC is the next watershed.

The trigger was Meta's earnings. Third-quarter results beat expectations, but it raised its capex outlook and said it would issue new non-voting shares to fund AI, sending its shares down about 6-7%. Amazon (-4.6%), Alphabet (-3.2%) and Tesla (-3.1%) followed, and the semiconductor index plunged about 6.7%. The VIX rose 14% to 19.04.

Bonds traded as a safe haven. The US 10-year yield fell 15.8bp to 4.961%, dipping below 5% for the first time in about a month. Herald Business reported that, per CME, the probability of an October hike had fallen to 7.2%. A hold at 3.75-4.00% at the 27-28 October FOMC is the base case.

Energy moved the other way. On intensified Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and reports that the US and Israel are considering renewed strikes on Iran, Brent rose 4% to close at $113.17 and WTI at $99.47. Gold fell 2.85% to about $4,023 on oil-driven inflation worries, and Bitcoin slid to about $81,000 on the risk-asset sell-off.

Asia was already selling before the US session. The KOSPI closed down 3.52% at 5,533.77, led by Samsung Electronics (-4.0%) and SK Hynix (-5.5%), also reflecting weaker supply and demand after the end of share buybacks. The Nikkei fell 2.65%, the Hang Seng about 3%, Shanghai 1.5% and Taiwan's weighted index about 1.8%.

On currencies, USD/KRW was stable at ₩1,324.2, and the yen strengthened on risk aversion (USD/JPY around 157.2). The euro was weak on French political instability, but its close could not be confirmed. The next variables are SK Hynix's third-quarter results and the FOMC on 27-29 October.

Tech & Energy

Energy: Brent closed at $116.72 on 23 October, its highest since 29 April, as continued Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and fears of a renewed US-Iran clash piled up. No extension has yet been announced for the rare-earth controls suspension (expiring 10 November).

Chips and AI: After Meta raised its AI capital spending outlook and announced a plan to issue new non-voting shares, AI financing worries spread and the semiconductor index plunged about 6.7% (reported). In South Korea, Samsung Electronics fell 4.0% and SK Hynix 5.5% as fears of a memory slump (CXMT's catch-up, 2029 oversupply) continued.

TSMC reaffirmed its 2026 capex of $60-64 billion, and there are reports that it is exploring substitutes for rare-earth components used in equipment (report date unclear).

Critical minerals: There is no new news on an extension ahead of 10 November, when the suspension of China's expanded rare-earth controls expires. Another report gives a different date of 27 November for separate suspensions such as gadolinium.

On 21 October TI reported third-quarter revenue of $6.06 billion (+28% year on year), suggesting an analog recovery, but its fourth-quarter guidance and the market reaction are unconfirmed.

Scheduled: SK Hynix third-quarter results (27-29 October), the FOMC (27-28 October) and the 10 November expiry of the rare-earth controls suspension.

Active conflicts

Key indicators

US Fed Funds Rate3.75~4.00% ―Unchanged on 23 October. A hold at the 27-28 October FOMC is the base case, and the market awaits clues on whether the Fed will hike in December (the roughly 80% December hike expectation is provisional, as it comes from a single Mining.com citation). Oil-driven inflation worries are sustaining hike bets.
S&P 5007,623.68 (-0.52%) ▼Regular-session close on Friday 23 October. Down 0.52% from the previous 7,663.43 (arithmetic matches). The Dow was 52,215.16 (-1.23%, -652.82 points) and the Nasdaq fell 0.21%; the tech sell-off calmed, but a surge in oil prices and worries over renewed US-Iran clashes spread to large caps. For the week, the S&P fell 0.47%, the Nasdaq 0.71% and the Dow rose 0.41%. The 22 October close of 7,663.43 (-1.21%) is formally confirmed by SBS Biz and others (the Sunday Guardian's 7,658.24 is an intraday value).
Nasdaq Composite25,955.34 (-0.21%) ▼Close on 23 October (Fri). Down 0.21% from the previous 26,008.86 (back-calculation matches). After the previous day's 2.60% plunge, the selloff in AI-related stocks eased somewhat. The 22 October close of 26,008.86 (-2.60%) is also officially confirmed by multiple outlets.
US 10-Year Yield~4.98% ▲For 23 October, Newspim has 4.984%, Trading Economics 4.97% and CNBC 4.98-5.00%, a slight discrepancy (up around 2bp on the day). The 22 October close is 4.952% (-19.3bp) per Newspim, which differs from the previous 4.961% (-15.8bp), so the 22 October value needs correcting (source discrepancy). The yield is back near the 5% threshold on inflation worries from the oil surge.
VIX Volatility Index~19.0 (+14.2%) ―The 23 October VIX is uncertain because of source discrepancies (Newspim 19.76, a single source; Investing.com 18.94), so the previous value (CBOE 19.03 on 22 October) is kept.
Crude Oil (WTI / Brent)WTI ~$103.3 (December contract) / Brent ~$116.7 ▲Settlement on 23 October: December WTI $103.27 (+3.80, +3.82%) and ICE December Brent $116.72 (+3.55, +3.14%), the highest since April. Concerns that the US and Israel could resume attacks on Iran after the midterm elections, attacks on tankers in Hormuz, and falling inventories. Brent topped $117 intraday. The 22 October figures of WTI 99.47 and Brent 113.17 are confirmed by back-calculation.
Gold~$4,008/oz (COMEX December futures close) ▼On 23 October, the COMEX December contract closed at $4,007.90 (-1.3%), and spot briefly fell below $4,000. The previous value (4,023) was a spot figure, while the 22 October COMEX December settlement was 4,060.40, so the bases were mixed; from now on the COMEX December closing price is used (a slight break in the time series).
Bitcoin~$81,300 ―As a 24-hour asset there is no official close. Around 18:00 ET on 23 October it was about $81,330, within an intraday range of $80,989-82,265. It fell 3.4-3.8% (to the $81,2xx level) at one point in the morning, then moved sideways in the $80,000s. Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows were reported ($635 million) but from a single source. The Saturday morning value could not be confirmed.
KRW/USD₩1,324.6 (23 October Seoul 15:30 close) ―Up ₩0.4 (matches the previous day's ₩1,324.2 in a check). Rose for the first time in six sessions on the plunge in US tech stocks and foreign selling, but exporters' negotiated dollar sales limited the move. Some outlets showed ₩1,324.7 (+₩0.5). Foreign investors net sold about ₩967-993 billion of KOSPI shares.
JPY/USD~¥156.5 ▼The official close for 23 October differs by source (TradingEconomics 156.87, Investing.com 156.35). Based on the 22 October New York close of 156.96 yen (-0.75%), this slightly corrects the previous 157.2 (the New York morning value). The yen is trending stronger on weak Japanese equities and a flight to safety.
EUR/USD~1.120 (-0.1%) ▼On 23 October the pair was about 1.1194–1.1202 (Trading Economics -0.14%), and Reuters reported that the euro was on course for a weekly decline on a sell-off in French government bonds. The 22 October close was 1.12168 (-0.15%) per Yonhap Infomax, close to the previous 1.122. The final 23 October close is unconfirmed.
KOSPI5,550.30 (+0.30%) ▲The 23 October close was up 16.53 points (+0.30%; matches the previous day's 5,533.77). It opened at 5,403.17 and rebounded from an intraday low of 5,305.98 (-4.12%). SK Hynix rose 4.42% (₩1.277 million; Solidigm IPO review halted) and Samsung Electronics 0.47% (₩215,500). Decliners outnumbered advancers 756 to 146, foreigners were net sellers, and the KOSDAQ was 751.69 (-1.62%). The 22 October close of 5,533.77 is formally confirmed.

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