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World briefing — October 26, 2026

As of 2026-10-26

What changed since yesterday

World trends

War & Conflict

Conflicts with confirmed changes in the 24-26 October period are Russia-Ukraine (about 30 ballistic missiles on 24 October, single-source), Iran (IRGC claim of a mine strike, a warning from Abdollahi, Trump weighing new attacks), Gaza (at least 8 dead on 25 October), Houthi-Saudi (interceptions towards Mecca and Medina on 24 October, which the Houthis denied), Haiti (outcome of the rescue operation unconfirmed), Ethiopia (reinforced reports of advances at Axum and Zalambessa), and Myanmar (22 killed in an airstrike on a school in Kyauktaw, single-source). For Israel-Lebanon, Sudan, the Sahel, DRC-M23, Afghanistan-Pakistan, Venezuela and China-Taiwan, no new developments have been reported since 24 October (for Sudan, nothing new since reports of the 19-22 October drone war).

Geopolitics & Diplomacy

Elections: in Serbia's 25 October general election, Vucic conceded defeat based on a sample count, with provisional results (official final not yet confirmed) showing the student list winning around 130-140 seats. In Bulgaria's presidential first round, Iotova (around 35%) led Gyurov (32%), but with no majority and record-low turnout it goes to a 1 November run-off. In Brazil's run-off, counting proceeded with Flavio Bolsonaro narrowly ahead at around 50.4%, and no final result was confirmed as of the morning of 26 October. For Israel's 27 October general election, final polls show Eisenkot's opposition at 52-56 seats and Netanyahu's camp at 50, with neither side reaching a majority.

Russia-Ukraine: Zelensky said US-Russia-Ukraine technical-level talks will be held in Abu Dhabi in the first half of November, and the Kremlin is gauging around 10 November. Trust is limited by the precedent of a meeting planned for this month falling through, Putin's insistence on a final agreement, the controversy over Witkoff calling Putin a 'humanitarian', and a cluster-munition strike on Kyiv.

Iran: Araghchi stated on 25 October that Iran's position is unchanged even if war returns and that Hormuz will not go back to the old arrangement. Pakistani and Qatari mediation premised on accepting the seven-day plan is deadlocked, and Trump hinted at further operations in the style of 'Epic Fury'. In Israel, reports that Netanyahu and the chief of staff clashed over an Iran operation plan entangle the election with security decisions.

US-China and sanctions: the suspension of rare-earth controls expires on 10 November, but no extension has been announced, and the US-China trade truce has been extended to 10 January 2027. A US-China three-way meeting has not been confirmed. The EU expanded large-scale Russia-related sanctions on 12 October, and Trump issued an executive order on 16 October exempting some cases from the Graham sanctions law.

US politics: ahead of the 3 November midterms, Democrats lead the generic ballot by about 8 points, the probability of Democrats taking the House is about 88%, and the Senate is a close contest. Inflation of 3.7%, oil prices and the Iran war are burdens for the Republicans.

Natural disasters: a magnitude 7.0 earthquake in Nagqu, Tibet, on 22 October killed 16 (citing Xinhua, provisional) and collapsed more than 339 homes. The August Nepal-Tibet glacier flood stands at about 1,455 dead and 5,285 missing, with the search ended. No new major disasters have been reported since 24 October.

Health: Congo's Ebola outbreak (Bundibugyo strain) stands at 9,704 confirmed cases and 4,687 deaths per WHO (20 October), and Kenya at 9 confirmed cases and 1 death (WHO) or 2 (tracking site). Brazil's final result is unconfirmed.

Finance & Economy

With Asian markets yet to open on Monday 26 October, the 12 indicators reflect Friday 23 October closes. In the US, the Dow ended Friday at 52,215.16 (-1.23%), the S&P 500 at 7,623.68 (-0.52%) and the Nasdaq at 25,955.34 (-0.21%).

Oil is this week's biggest variable. Brent settled on Friday at $116.72 (+3.14%, up about 6% on the week and the highest since 29 April) and WTI at $103.27. No new prices were confirmed over the weekend, and news on Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and renewed Iran clashes is expected to be reflected when futures open on Sunday evening. The scenario range is put at $108-120 (secondary analysis, for reference).

The Fed is likely to hold at 3.75-4.00% at the 27-28 October FOMC (per CME, a hold at about 88-91% and a hike at 9-12%). With the probability of a December hike up at 68-76%, the market is watching for hawkish signals from this meeting and any dissents in favour of a hike. September CPI of 3.7%, oil above $100 and the midterms (3 November) are political and policy burdens. The dot plot is next updated on 9 December. The US 10-year yield was near 4.96-4.98% on Friday, at the 5% threshold.

Bitcoin continued its risk-asset weakness over the weekend. It slid to $79,146 on Saturday on about $800 million of liquidations before recovering to $80,400-80,800 on Sunday, with support at $78,400 and resistance at $81,700 cited. The backdrop is Middle East tension, ETF net outflows and FOMC wariness, and figures vary by source. Gold was at about $4,008 for the COMEX December contract on Friday (its biggest weekly drop since June), weighed down by oil-driven inflation worries.

Asian and European closes from Friday remain valid. The KOSPI closed at 5,550.30 (+0.30%, rebounding from a 4%-plus intraday loss), the Nikkei at 62,693.16 (-0.34%, its lowest close since 30 July), the DAX at 25,181.65 (-0.75%), the CAC 40 at 7,782.82 (-0.36%) and the FTSE 100 at 10,690.36 (-0.32%). Taiwan was closed on 23 October because of a typhoon. The France-Germany 10-year spread is about 178bp, the largest since 2011, so French fiscal and political troubles are a factor in euro weakness.

The market reaction to weekend political events is unconfirmed. Results of the Brazilian runoff (25 October) and Serbian general election (25 October) had not yet been reported. In Brazil, Flavio Bolsonaro's lead in the first round led to a stronger real and a surge in the Bovespa, and polls just before the runoff were close (Datafolha 49 to 45, among others). The result and Monday's reaction in the real and the Bovespa have yet to be confirmed.

This week's calendar is Israel's general election (27 October), the FOMC (27-28 October, decision Wednesday 28 October), SK Hynix's third-quarter results (27-29 October), the US midterms (3 November), the RBA (3 November) and the expiry of China's suspension of rare-earth controls (10 November). This reflects information up to the evening of 25 October; Monday-morning futures, early Asian trading and any new political or fiscal events in Japan and Europe are not included.

Tech & Energy

Energy: Brent closed at $116.72 on 23 October, its highest since 29 April (WTI $103.27). The causes are the continued closure of Hormuz, Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and US hints of renewed strikes. There are no new prices for 24-26 October (the weekend), and Monday's Asian session will be the first reaction.

Reserves: Of the IEA's 400 million-barrel release, about 330 million barrels had been delivered as of 16 October, and on 2 October the G7 added up to 100 million barrels, mainly diesel. But refined-product supply, especially diesel, is the tightest, and the assessment is that the releases cannot make up for the Hormuz disruption. No new release decisions were confirmed for 24-26 October.

Chips and AI: The semiconductor index plunged on Meta's AI capex expansion and financing concerns (compounded by weakness at Lam Research). Alphabet and Microsoft earnings on the 28th and Amazon's on the 29th are the test of the sustainability of hyperscaler investment. The same week, SK Hynix (28 October), Samsung Electronics' detailed results and conference call (29 October), SanDisk and Intel report earnings.

Memory: South Korean chip stocks rebounded as SK Hynix halted its consideration of a Solidigm IPO, amid CXMT's catch-up and 2029 oversupply fears. With foreign investor flows mixed, SK Hynix's earnings and shareholder returns (NH Investment & Securities estimates more than ₩30 trillion) are the variables that will set the direction.

Export controls: On 31 May the US closed a loophole to require advanced-chip licences for all companies headquartered in China (including Blackwell and Rubin), and for Nvidia's H200, even with US approval, China restricts mainland imports and steers users towards Hong Kong (FT report, August). No new measures were confirmed for 24-26 October.

Critical minerals: The suspension of China's expanded rare-earth controls expires on 10 November, but no extension or withdrawal has been announced yet. The truce has been extended to 10 January 2027 without explicitly naming rare earths, and the April 2025 controls remain in force. Whether the Commerce Ministry announces something soon is the main thing to watch.

Active conflicts

Key indicators

US Fed Funds Rate3.75~4.00% ―[Friday 23 October close] Unchanged on 23 October. A hold at the 27-28 October FOMC is the base case, and the market awaits clues on whether the Fed will hike in December (the roughly 80% December hike expectation is provisional, as it comes from a single Mining.com citation). Oil-driven inflation worries are sustaining hike bets.
S&P 5007,623.68 (-0.52%) ―[Friday 23 October close] Regular-session close on Friday 23 October. Down 0.52% from the previous 7,663.43 (arithmetic matches). The Dow was 52,215.16 (-1.23%, -652.82 points) and the Nasdaq fell 0.21%; the tech sell-off calmed, but a surge in oil prices and worries over renewed US-Iran clashes spread to large caps. For the week, the S&P fell 0.47%, the Nasdaq 0.71% and the Dow rose 0.41%. The 22 October close of 7,663.43 (-1.21%) is formally confirmed by SBS Biz and others (the Sunday Guardian's 7,658.24 is an intraday value).
Nasdaq Composite25,955.34 (-0.21%) ―[Friday 23 October close] Close on 23 October (Fri). Down 0.21% from the previous 26,008.86 (back-calculation matches). After the previous day's 2.60% plunge, the selloff in AI-related stocks eased somewhat. The 22 October close of 26,008.86 (-2.60%) is also officially confirmed by multiple outlets.
US 10-Year Yield~4.98% ―[Friday 23 October close] For 23 October, Newspim has 4.984%, Trading Economics 4.97% and CNBC 4.98-5.00%, a slight discrepancy (up around 2bp on the day). The 22 October close is 4.952% (-19.3bp) per Newspim, which differs from the previous 4.961% (-15.8bp), so the 22 October value needs correcting (source discrepancy). The yield is back near the 5% threshold on inflation worries from the oil surge.
VIX Volatility Index~19.0 (+14.2%) ―[Friday 23 October close] The 23 October VIX is uncertain because of source discrepancies (Newspim 19.76, a single source; Investing.com 18.94), so the previous value (CBOE 19.03 on 22 October) is kept.
Crude Oil (WTI / Brent)WTI ~$103.3 (December contract) / Brent ~$116.7 ―[Friday 23 October close] Settlement on 23 October: December WTI $103.27 (+3.80, +3.82%) and ICE December Brent $116.72 (+3.55, +3.14%), the highest since April. Concerns that the US and Israel could resume attacks on Iran after the midterm elections, attacks on tankers in Hormuz, and falling inventories. Brent topped $117 intraday. The 22 October figures of WTI 99.47 and Brent 113.17 are confirmed by back-calculation.
Gold~$4,008/oz (COMEX December futures close) ―[Friday 23 October close] On 23 October, the COMEX December contract closed at $4,007.90 (-1.3%), and spot briefly fell below $4,000. The previous value (4,023) was a spot figure, while the 22 October COMEX December settlement was 4,060.40, so the bases were mixed; from now on the COMEX December closing price is used (a slight break in the time series).
Bitcoin~$80,400 ▼On Saturday (24 October), leveraged liquidations ($810-820 million over 24 hours, mostly longs) pushed Bitcoin down to $79,146, its lowest in over a month, before it recovered to $80,000-80,800. Support is cited at 78,400 and resistance at $81,700 near the 50-day moving average. Slightly lower than about $81,000 on 23 October. The backdrop is Middle East tensions, ETF net outflows and the wait for the FOMC. Figures vary by outlet and time, and the morning price on 26 October could not be confirmed.
KRW/USD₩1,324.6 (23 October Seoul 15:30 close) ―[Friday 23 October close] Up ₩0.4 (matches the previous day's ₩1,324.2 in a check). Rose for the first time in six sessions on the plunge in US tech stocks and foreign selling, but exporters' negotiated dollar sales limited the move. Some outlets showed ₩1,324.7 (+₩0.5). Foreign investors net sold about ₩967-993 billion of KOSPI shares.
JPY/USD~¥156.5 ―[Friday 23 October close] The official close for 23 October differs by source (TradingEconomics 156.87, Investing.com 156.35). Based on the 22 October New York close of 156.96 yen (-0.75%), this slightly corrects the previous 157.2 (the New York morning value). The yen is trending stronger on weak Japanese equities and a flight to safety.
EUR/USD~1.120 (-0.1%) ―[Friday 23 October close] On 23 October the pair was about 1.1194–1.1202 (Trading Economics -0.14%), and Reuters reported that the euro was on course for a weekly decline on a sell-off in French government bonds. The 22 October close was 1.12168 (-0.15%) per Yonhap Infomax, close to the previous 1.122. The final 23 October close is unconfirmed.
KOSPI5,550.30 (+0.30%) ―[Friday 23 October close] The 23 October close was up 16.53 points (+0.30%; matches the previous day's 5,533.77). It opened at 5,403.17 and rebounded from an intraday low of 5,305.98 (-4.12%). SK Hynix rose 4.42% (₩1.277 million; Solidigm IPO review halted) and Samsung Electronics 0.47% (₩215,500). Decliners outnumbered advancers 756 to 146, foreigners were net sellers, and the KOSDAQ was 751.69 (-1.62%). The 22 October close of 5,533.77 is formally confirmed.

Key relations

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