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World briefing — October 28, 2026

As of 2026-10-28

What changed since yesterday

World trends

War & Conflict

The one new conflict development is the localized ceasefire in Russian-occupied Oleshky announced by the White House, with reported start dates differing. No new events were reported in Iran, Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Sudan, Myanmar, the Sahel, DRC, Ethiopia, Haiti, Afghanistan-Pakistan, Venezuela or China-Taiwan, so the earlier accounts stand. Separately, Israel's election exit polls left both blocs short of a majority.

Geopolitics & Diplomacy

Israel's 27 October election exit polls left both blocs short of the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Broadcasters differ widely: Channel 12 projected 52 seats for the change bloc against 50 for Netanyahu's camp, while i24 had 55 for the coalition against 49 for the opposition. Official results are not final, so the outlook for coalition talks is provisional. Elections: In Brazil's runoff Lula beat Flavio Bolsonaro with just over 51% of the vote, by about 4.4 million votes, for a fourth term, but Flavio refuses to concede and plans a court challenge to annul the result. In Serbia, the election commission's count (96% of polling stations) gives the Student List 52.54% and Vucic's list 39.29%, so the Student List looks set to govern alone, though the prime minister and government remain undecided. Bulgaria's presidential first round ended with Iotova at 34.8% and Gyurov at 31.9% (99.94% counted), setting up a 1 November runoff on a record-low turnout of about 22%. Israel votes on 27 October, with the final polls leaving both blocs short of a majority.

Iran: On 26 October the Saudi defence minister, Pakistan's army chief and Turkey's intelligence chief met Iranian leaders in Tehran to head off a return to war, with no concrete agreement announced. Trump said on 25 October there would be no strike that day while weighing a deal against further action, and Araghchi reiterated that Iran's position is unchanged and Hormuz will not return to its prewar regime. Qatari and Pakistani mediation continues.

Russia-Ukraine: The Kremlin confirmed on 23 October that US-Russia-Ukraine trilateral talks are planned for the first half of November in Abu Dhabi, with around 10 November floated. Zelensky cautions that it depends on Moscow. No new announcement reversing this had been found as of 26 October.

US-China and sanctions: The suspension of China's rare-earth controls expires on 10 November with no extension announced, while the US-China trade truce runs to 10 January 2027. Trump issued an executive order on 16 October exempting application of the Graham sanctions act, and the EU widened its Russia sanctions on 12 October.

US politics: Ahead of the 3 November midterms Democrats lead the generic ballot, and prediction markets put their chance of taking the House at around 90% and the Senate in the 60s (varying by outlet). Inflation, oil prices and the Iran war weigh on Republicans. Trump says there will be no Iran attack before the election, though some outlets speculate about a resumption afterwards.

France: The 17 October nationwide protests drew about 550,000 by Interior Ministry count (800,000 by organisers), with further mobilisation planned for 24 and 31 October and a union strike on 5 November. No reliable count for the 24 October protests was found. The risk of a no-confidence vote over the 2027 budget continues for the Lecornu government.

Disasters and health: The magnitude 7.0 Nagqu, Tibet earthquake of 22 October (16 dead per Xinhua, provisional) remains the most significant recent disaster; a magnitude 5.9 quake hit the same region on 25 October with no damage reported. Congo's Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak stood at 9,704 confirmed cases and 4,687 deaths per WHO on 20 October, while Kenya's confirmed cases are about nine (figures vary by report) and its health ministry says there is no evidence of community spread.

Finance & Economy

US stocks rose for a second day on AI chip strength and lower oil. The S&P 500 closed at 7,722.60 (+0.60%), the Nasdaq at 26,477.81 (+1.18%) and the Dow was little changed at 52,377.57. [Oct 27 (Tue) close]

The Fed is widely expected to hold at 3.75-4.00% at the Oct 28 FOMC. Attention is on whether Chair Warsh signals a December hike; CME odds of a December hike are reported at 80-83%. The 10-year yield held at 4.99% and the Dollar Index rose to 102.045 (+0.34%).

Oil fell as Iran, Saudi Arabia and others agreed to keep talking. WTI December dropped below $100 to $99.90 and Brent was $113.88. Lower oil eased inflation worries, supporting gold (COMEX December $4,074.60, +0.9%) and equities.

In FX, the dollar strengthened ahead of the Fed, ECB and BOJ meetings. USD/JPY was 157.90, EUR/USD 1.1136 (-0.33%), and Seoul's USD/KRW closed at 1,323.7 (+0.6 won) amid month-end exporter selling; the Seoul close precedes New York events. Bitcoin held the $80,000 level (about $80,600) on thin volume.

KOSPI rebounded sharply to 5,638.35 (+3.09%) as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix surged on Anthropic IPO optimism, with foreign net buying. The Nikkei also rose to 63,268.37 (+1.73%, single-source report). SK hynix reports Q3 results on Oct 28, with operating profit consensus of about 76-77 trillion won; Samsung follows on Oct 29.

Anthropic's IPO roadshow is reported to start the week of Nov 9 with a listing before Thanksgiving (Nov 26) and a valuation of up to $2 trillion. Whether Taiwan's stock market has reopened after the typhoon closure could not be confirmed.

Tech & Energy

AI capital markets: Anthropic publicly filed its S-1 on 26 October and is moving toward a Nasdaq listing under the ticker 'ANT'. The offering size and price are not set, and reports differ on the size ($60 billion or more versus up to $100 billion). SK hynix reports third-quarter results on 28 October, with consensus operating profit of about 77 trillion won (a pre-announcement estimate).

Energy: Brent closed at $116.72 on 23 October, its highest since 29 April (WTI $103.27). The causes are the continued closure of Hormuz, Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and US hints of renewed strikes. There are no new prices for 24-26 October (the weekend), and Monday's Asian session will be the first reaction.

Reserves: Of the IEA's 400 million-barrel release, about 330 million barrels had been delivered as of 16 October, and on 2 October the G7 added up to 100 million barrels, mainly diesel. But refined-product supply, especially diesel, is the tightest, and the assessment is that the releases cannot make up for the Hormuz disruption. No new release decisions were confirmed for 24-26 October.

Chips and AI: The semiconductor index plunged on Meta's AI capex expansion and financing concerns (compounded by weakness at Lam Research). Alphabet and Microsoft earnings on the 28th and Amazon's on the 29th are the test of the sustainability of hyperscaler investment. The same week, SK Hynix (28 October), Samsung Electronics' detailed results and conference call (29 October), SanDisk and Intel report earnings.

Memory: South Korean chip stocks rebounded as SK Hynix halted its consideration of a Solidigm IPO, amid CXMT's catch-up and 2029 oversupply fears. With foreign investor flows mixed, SK Hynix's earnings and shareholder returns (NH Investment & Securities estimates more than ₩30 trillion) are the variables that will set the direction.

Export controls: On 31 May the US closed a loophole to require advanced-chip licences for all companies headquartered in China (including Blackwell and Rubin), and for Nvidia's H200, even with US approval, China restricts mainland imports and steers users towards Hong Kong (FT report, August). No new measures were confirmed for 24-26 October.

Critical minerals: The suspension of China's expanded rare-earth controls expires on 10 November, but no extension or withdrawal has been announced yet. The truce has been extended to 10 January 2027 without explicitly naming rare earths, and the April 2025 controls remain in force. Whether the Commerce Ministry announces something soon is the main thing to watch.

Active conflicts

Key indicators

US Fed Funds Rate3.75~4.00% ―[Oct 27 (Tue) close] Unchanged on Oct 27. The FOMC decision due Oct 28 is widely expected to hold the range; markets are watching whether Chair Kevin Warsh signals a December hike. CME FedWatch put the odds of a December hike at roughly 80-83%. September PCE and Q3 GDP advance estimates are due Oct 29.
S&P 5007,722.60 (+0.60%) ▲[Oct 27 (Tue) close] Regular-session close, up 45.83 points from 7,676.77. Dow 52,377.57 (+0.03%). Semiconductor strength and lower oil drove gains ahead of the FOMC decision.
Nasdaq Composite26,477.81 (+1.18%) ▲[Oct 27 (Tue) close] Closed up 308.43 points from 26,169.38, a second straight gain, on AI chip strength and Anthropic IPO optimism.
US 10-Year Yield약 4.99% ―[Oct 27 (Tue) close] The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.99% per Treasury data, down 0.01 point; some market wraps cite 4.999% late in New York. It remains just under 5%.
VIX Volatility Index약 17.5 (-4.9%) ▼[Oct 27 (Tue) close] VIX closed near 17.5 (17.48 or 17.52 depending on the source), down about 4.7-5.0% from 18.39.
Crude Oil (WTI / Brent)WTI 약 $99.9 (12월물) / 브렌트 약 $113.9 ▼[Oct 27 (Tue) close] WTI December settled at $99.90 (-$1.86, -1.83%), Brent December at $113.88 (-1.67%), as talks between Iran, Saudi Arabia and others eased supply fears. WTI slipped below $100. UBS expects Brent to hold around $110 through year-end.
Gold약 $4,075/oz (COMEX 12월물 선물 종가) ▲[Oct 27 (Tue) close] COMEX December gold settled at $4,074.60 (+0.9%), a second straight gain; spot-based wraps show about $4,055-4,061 (+1.12%). Lower oil eased inflation worries, though a roughly 80% December-hike probability caps gains. The Oct 26 settle of $4,038.40 is confirmed by multiple outlets.
Bitcoin약 $80,600 ―[Oct 27 (Tue) close] Bitcoin held the $80,000 level, at $80,648.68 on a New York close basis (Investing.com's daily close shows $79,807.6, so sources range $79,800-80,650). It dipped to $79,984 intraday before recovering, with volume thin ahead of the FOMC and midterms.
KRW/USD1,323.7원 (10/27 서울 15:30 종가) ▲[Oct 27 (Tue) close] Seoul 15:30 daytime close of 1,323.7 won (+0.6 won from 1,323.1). Month-end exporter selling offset FOMC caution, keeping the range narrow. The Seoul close precedes New York events including the FOMC decision.
JPY/USD약 157.9엔 ▲[Oct 27 (Tue) close] USD/JPY closed at 157.90 (+0.24%, Reuters tally) in New York. The Oct 26 close was about 157.5 (157.46), correcting the earlier 156.5 entry. The Seoul won-yen cross (838.69 won per 100 yen) implies about 157.8. Dollar strength reflected positioning before the Fed, ECB and BOJ meetings.
EUR/USD약 1.114 (-0.3%) ▼[Oct 27 (Tue) close] EUR/USD closed at 1.1136 (-0.33%, Reuters tally) in New York. The Oct 26 close was 1.1179, correcting the earlier 1.120 entry. The roughly 1.117 implied by the Seoul won-euro cross reflects an earlier time of day. Dollar Index 102.045 (+0.34%).
KOSPI5,638.35 (+3.09%) ▲[Oct 27 (Tue) close] KOSPI rose 168.87 points (+3.09%) from 5,469.47 as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix surged on Anthropic IPO optimism, with foreign net buying. KOSDAQ closed at 743.83 (+2.29%).

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