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World briefing — October 29, 2026

As of 2026-10-29

What changed since yesterday

World trends

War & Conflict

The main conflict development on Oct. 28 was the Oleshky local ceasefire holding: Russia's and Ukraine's ombudsmen reported no violations in its first 30 hours, and the truce is due to run to about Nov. 1. Fears of renewed US strikes on Iran lifted oil, but no new fighting was confirmed. Other conflicts saw no newly reported events, so earlier descriptions stand.

Geopolitics & Diplomacy

Israel's election count, at 90%, shows Netanyahu's bloc on 53 seats, Eisenkot's bloc on 48 and Arab parties on a record 19, leaving neither side near 61. About 600,000 double-envelope ballots and the official results around Nov. 4 are the remaining variables, and coalition haggling or a new election looks likely.

Iran diplomacy has a new vehicle: a Qatari-mediated draft with a seven-day confidence-building timeline, which Tehran says it welcomes. Trump has said he will not strike before the Nov. 3 midterms, but the Hormuz crisis continues.

Six days before the US midterms, Trump's approval has fallen to 31% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll, and markets price Democrats at roughly 90% to win the House and about 63% for the Senate.

Europe is warming to direct talks with Russia as Washington moves closer to Putin, with US-Russia-Ukraine trilateral talks planned in Abu Dhabi in the first half of November.

US-China and sanctions: The suspension of China's rare-earth controls expires on 10 November with no extension announced, while the US-China trade truce runs to 10 January 2027. Trump issued an executive order on 16 October exempting application of the Graham sanctions act, and the EU widened its Russia sanctions on 12 October.

France: The 17 October nationwide protests drew about 550,000 by Interior Ministry count (800,000 by organisers), with further mobilisation planned for 24 and 31 October and a union strike on 5 November. No reliable count for the 24 October protests was found. The risk of a no-confidence vote over the 2027 budget continues for the Lecornu government.

Disasters and health: The magnitude 7.0 Nagqu, Tibet earthquake of 22 October (16 dead per Xinhua, provisional) remains the most significant recent disaster; a magnitude 5.9 quake hit the same region on 25 October with no damage reported. Congo's Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak stood at 9,704 confirmed cases and 4,687 deaths per WHO on 20 October, while Kenya's confirmed cases are about nine (figures vary by report) and its health ministry says there is no evidence of community spread.

Finance & Economy

Fed holds in a 10-2 split but a December hike is priced at 80%-90%; the 10-year stays near 5%

SK hynix's record Q3 profit (83 trillion won) and 100 trillion won payout lift the KOSPI back above 6,000 (+6.63%)

Oil rebounds on US-Iran strike fears: WTI $102.78, Brent $115.32

Won drops 14 to 1,337.7 per dollar, its biggest one-day fall in five months, on FOMC caution and hedging demand

Bank of Canada hikes 25bp to 2.5% while the UK Budget draws a muted market reaction; inflation and oil drive policy

Investors await the ECB (Oct. 29), Samsung Electronics earnings (Oct. 29) and the BOJ (Oct. 30)

Tech & Energy

Memory supercycle: SK hynix posts 83 trillion won quarterly profit; Samsung's full results due Oct. 29

Anthropic IPO timeline firms up: roadshow after Nov. 10, price still unset

Nov. 10 rare earth suspension expiry nears with no extension announced

Export controls: On 31 May the US closed a loophole to require advanced-chip licences for all companies headquartered in China (including Blackwell and Rubin), and for Nvidia's H200, even with US approval, China restricts mainland imports and steers users towards Hong Kong (FT report, August). No new measures were confirmed for 24-26 October.

Critical minerals: The suspension of China's expanded rare-earth controls expires on 10 November, but no extension or withdrawal has been announced yet. The truce has been extended to 10 January 2027 without explicitly naming rare earths, and the April 2025 controls remain in force. Whether the Commerce Ministry announces something soon is the main thing to watch.

Active conflicts

Key indicators

US Fed Funds Rate3.75~4.00% ―[As of Wed 10/28] The Fed held the target range at 3.75%-4.00% at its 2:00 p.m. ET decision, before the US close. The vote was 10-2, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of a quarter-point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh said he would not prejudge December and that politics played no role; he also said the Fed will cut its meetings to seven next year and six in 2028. Futures price roughly an 80-90% chance of a December hike (estimates vary by outlet).
S&P 5007,743.98 (+0.28%) ▲[As of Wed 10/28 close] Regular-session close, up 21.38 points from 7,722.60 (checks out). A third straight gain after choppy trading around the Fed decision. Dow 52,475.10 (+0.19%). After the bell Microsoft rose on a strong quarter while Alphabet fell sharply on weak free cash flow and search revenue.
Nasdaq Composite26,549.85 (+0.27%) ▲[As of Wed 10/28 close] Closed at 26,549.85, up 72.04 points from 26,477.81 (checks out), a third straight gain. Chip and AI names led, with SK hynix's US-listed shares up about 13% and Oracle about 10%. One outlet tallied +0.63%, but most reports agree on +0.27%.
US 10-Year Yield약 5.03% ▲[As of Wed 10/28] After the Fed hold the 2-year slipped to about 4.70% while the 10-year rose to roughly 5.02%-5.04% (CNBC 5.026%, other outlets 5.03%-5.04%), staying above 5%. Final settlement differs by 1-2 basis points between outlets, so the figure is provisional.
VIX Volatility Index약 16.9 (-3.4%) ▼[As of Wed 10/28 close] The VIX closed at 16.92 (-3.42%) per Newspim, or 16.91 per another outlet, down from 17.52 (checks out), as Fed uncertainty eased.
Crude Oil (WTI / Brent)WTI 약 $102.8 (12월물) / 브렌트 약 $115.3 ▲[As of Wed 10/28 settlement] WTI December settled at $102.78 (+$2.88, about +2.9%) and Brent December at $115.32 (+$1.44, about +1.3%), putting WTI back above $100 a day after it dipped below. Fears of renewed US strikes on Iran drove the move; one outlet cited a smaller intraday gain of 1.9%.
Gold약 $4,052/oz (COMEX 12월물 선물 종가) ▼[As of Wed 10/28 settlement] COMEX December gold settled at $4,051.60 an ounce (-$23.00, -0.56%) from $4,074.60. Gold slipped as the Fed reaffirmed its inflation resolve without a clear rate path; another outlet put the decline at 0.4%-0.6%.
Bitcoin약 $81,400 ▲[As of Wed 10/28] Bitcoin briefly sagged after the Fed hold, then recovered above $81,000 on about $132 million of liquidations, mostly shorts. It traded at $81,464.90 at 04:59 KST on 10/29 (+0.93% over 24 hours); daily closes vary slightly by data provider.
KRW/USD1,337.7원 (10/28 서울 15:30 종가) ▲[As of Wed 10/28] The won closed Seoul's 3:30 p.m. session at 1,337.7 per dollar, down 14.0 won from 1,323.7 (checks out), its biggest one-day drop in about five months and weakest close since Oct. 15 (1,344.6). It touched 1,342.3 intraday on foreign dollar buying, pre-FOMC positioning and hedging demand after the stock surge. This close precedes the New York Fed announcement.
JPY/USD약 157.9엔 ―[As of Wed 10/28] USD/JPY hovered around 157.78-157.92 in Tokyo and 157.9-158.0 in New York, roughly flat versus Tuesday's 157.90 close. A confirmed New York close was not available, so the figure is provisional. Finance Minister Katayama said Tuesday Japan is ready to act decisively; the BOJ decides on Oct. 30.
EUR/USD약 1.114 ―[As of Wed 10/28] EUR/USD ranged between 1.1113 (the 2026 low, set Oct. 14) and about 1.116, edging up after the Fed hold but staying below roughly 1.115. A confirmed New York close was not available, so the figure is provisional. The ECB decides Oct. 29, and the French budget crisis weighs on the euro.
KOSPI6,012.44 (+6.63%) ▲[As of Wed 10/28 close] The KOSPI closed at 6,012.44, up 6.63% (373.9 points from 5,638.35, checks out), reclaiming 6,000 for the first time in 10 sessions. SK hynix posted record Q3 operating profit of 83.33 trillion won on revenue of 104.62 trillion won and announced up to 100 trillion won in shareholder returns; its shares rose 10.89% to 1,487,000 won, and Samsung Electronics gained 9.01% to 242,000 won. Institutions bought 960.8 billion won and foreigners 822.9 billion won net; retail sold 1.80 trillion won. The KOSDAQ rose 3.69%.

Key relations

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