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World briefing — October 31, 2026

As of 2026-10-31

What changed since yesterday

World trends

War & Conflict

Two developments were confirmed on Oct. 30. In Russia-Ukraine, both sides said evacuation and humanitarian deliveries have begun under the Oleshky local ceasefire (due to expire late Nov. 1; no extension confirmed), while the Kremlin called it an isolated case. On Iran, Qatar carried a revised US draft to Tehran, but Iran has not replied to Vance's letter and reports say its nuclear position is unchanged. Accounts of who holds Zalambessa in Ethiopia conflict, so that description was softened. No new events were confirmed in the other conflicts, so earlier descriptions stand.

Geopolitics & Diplomacy

Israel's official count gave Netanyahu's bloc 53 seats, Eisenkot's opposition bloc 48 and Arab parties a record 19, leaving neither side at 61. Likud's unsupported claim that the vote was 'stolen' and Qatar's denial of funding Ra'am are fueling a dispute; final certification is due around Nov. 4. Congo's Ebola outbreak stood at 10,274 confirmed cases and 4,992 deaths as of Oct. 28, with 400-500 new cases a week. Next flashpoints are Bulgaria's Nov. 1 runoff, the Nov. 3 US midterms and the Nov. 10 expiry of China's rare-earth suspension.

With no bloc holding a majority, Israel faces coalition talks or a repeat election. Eisenkot's pledge to shun Arab parties complicates the math further.

Iran mediation is moving through Qatar. Vice President Vance sent a letter to Iranian security chief Rezaei proposing direct talks, and Qatar carried a revised US draft to Tehran on Oct. 30, but Iran has not replied and reports say its nuclear position is unchanged. Trump described the letter as about medical aid, so accounts differ. Reports of a tanker hit in Hormuz continue, with talk of possible US strikes after the midterms.

Four days before the US midterms, NPR and Marist polling favors Democrats. Trump's approval is 31% in Reuters/Ipsos and 38-40% in Marist, and Democrats lead the generic ballot by 8-12 points. In Brazil, Bolsonaro's Liberal Party accepted Lula's win, but Flavio Bolsonaro has hinted at seeking to annul it.

Ukraine diplomacy: Zelensky said he hopes for US-Russia-Ukraine technical talks in Abu Dhabi on Nov. 6-10, with timing now up to Washington. Putin agreed in principle to resume trilateral talks around Nov. 10 but offered no substantive concessions. In Oleshky, civilian evacuation has begun under the truce.

US-China and sanctions: The suspension of China's rare-earth controls expires on 10 November with no extension announced, while the US-China trade truce runs to 10 January 2027. Trump issued an executive order on 16 October exempting application of the Graham sanctions act, and the EU widened its Russia sanctions on 12 October.

France: The 17 October nationwide protests drew about 550,000 by Interior Ministry count (800,000 by organisers), with further mobilisation planned for 24 and 31 October and a union strike on 5 November. No reliable count for the 24 October protests was found. The risk of a no-confidence vote over the 2027 budget continues for the Lecornu government.

Finance & Economy

The AI-tech selloff deepened. Intel's fourth-quarter guidance shock and Amazon's earnings letdown sent the Nasdaq down 2.86%, leaving it about 5% lower for October, its worst month since March 2025, while the KOSPI plunged 3.48% to the 5,700s. Gold fell to a 52-week low and oil hit a six-month high on reports of a tanker attack in Hormuz. Closes for the 10-year yield, yen and euro conflicted, so prior values were kept.

Expectations of a December Fed hike remain high after the 10-2 hold. The BOJ held at 1.25% on Oct. 30 by an 8-1 vote and the ECB held on Oct. 29, with December hikes in play at both.

Intel's slump (fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $15-16 billion) and Amazon's EPS miss and negative free cash flow (-$42.4 billion over 12 months) revived worries about AI-spending returns after Alphabet's plunge.

Oil at six-month highs: WTI $104.12, Brent $117.64 (expiring December contract) on reports of a tanker attack in Hormuz.

USD/KRW 1,334.3 won (Seoul 3:30 p.m.): fell despite the equity rout on dollar softness and month-end exporter selling, before the New York session.

Gold hit a 52-week low (COMEX December $3,898.90, -3.29%), while bitcoin slipped below $77,000 after a disclosed $6.3 billion Binance breach and risk-asset selling.

Ahead: Apple earnings (Nov. 2), the Nov. 3 US midterms, and December Fed/BOJ/ECB rate decisions.

Tech & Energy

Big Tech results diverged. Amazon's AWS grew 39% to $46 billion, but about $220 billion of capex this year and negative free cash flow (-$42.4 billion) sent it down about 6% after hours (regular-session losses are reported differently), and Intel plunged on a weak fourth-quarter outlook. In memory, Samsung confirmed Q3 operating profit of 107.4 trillion won and a sold-out HBM4 supply for 2027, yet the KOSPI fell sharply on chip-stock selling.

Anthropic made its S-1 public on Oct. 26: first-half revenue of $16.3 billion, with a planned Nasdaq listing as 'ANT'. The roadshow is expected the week of Nov. 9 or later, with a listing targeted before Nov. 26 (provisional).

Apple reports fiscal fourth-quarter results on Monday, Nov. 2, the first under CEO John Ternus.

Energy: December Brent hit a six-month high of $117.64 on reports of a tanker attack in Hormuz and talk of US strikes on Iran after the midterms.

Export controls: On 31 May the US closed a loophole to require advanced-chip licences for all companies headquartered in China (including Blackwell and Rubin), and for Nvidia's H200, even with US approval, China restricts mainland imports and steers users towards Hong Kong (FT report, August). No new measures were confirmed for 24-26 October.

Critical minerals: The suspension of China's expanded rare-earth controls expires on 10 November, but no extension or withdrawal has been announced yet. The truce has been extended to 10 January 2027 without explicitly naming rare earths, and the April 2025 controls remain in force. Whether the Commerce Ministry announces something soon is the main thing to watch.

Active conflicts

Key indicators

US Fed Funds Rate3.75%-4.00% ―[As of Fri 10/30 close] No change since the Oct. 28 FOMC hold (10-2 vote). Expectations of a December hike persist.
S&P 5007,580.07 (-1.82%) ▼[As of Fri 10/30 close] Sank on an AI-tech selloff as Intel's fourth-quarter guidance shock and Amazon's earnings letdown piled on. Dow 51,770.31 (-1.09%; accounts differ on the Dow's move).
Nasdaq Composite25,437.00 (-2.86%) ▼[As of Fri 10/30 close] Down about 5% for October, its worst month since March 2025.
US 10-Year YieldAbout 5.03% (prior close held; outlets differ) ―[Prior close held] Some reports put the 10/30 close at 4.93-4.94%, but the prior-day close is cited variously at 4.94%, 4.98% and 5.02%, so the earlier value is kept. A confirmed figure would move the series in one step.
VIX Volatility IndexAbout 19.5 ▲[As of Fri 10/30 close] Spiked to 23.93 intraday before closing around 19.4-20 (+12.9%). Provisional given small differences between sources.
Crude Oil (WTI / Brent)WTI $104.12 / Brent $117.64 (expiring Dec; Jan $113.43) ▲[As of Fri 10/30 settlement] WTI rose $2.12 (+2.1%) and expiring December Brent $2.76 (+2.4%) to six-month highs on reports of a tanker hit by explosives in Hormuz and talk of US strikes on Iran after the midterms. The expiring December contract sits well above the more active January one. October: Brent +13.6%, WTI +15.2%.
GoldAbout $3,899/oz (COMEX Dec futures settlement) ▼[As of Fri 10/30 close] COMEX December gold fell 3.29% to $3,898.90, a 52-week low, from about $4,031 the day before; the prior $4,052 figure was off.
BitcoinAbout $76,800 ▼[As of Fri 10/30] Weak (-1.2% to -1.3% over 24 hours) on a disclosed $6.3 billion Binance security breach and the tech selloff. Quotes vary by time of day.
KRW/USD1,334.3 won (Seoul 3:30 p.m. close, 10/30) ▼[As of Fri 10/30 close] Seoul 3:30 p.m. close of 1,334.3 won (-2.5). Dollar softness and month-end exporter selling outweighed the equity rout. Predates the New York session.
JPY/USDAbout 157.9 yen (prior value held) ―[Prior value held] The BOJ held at 1.25% on Oct. 30 (8-1, with Takata arguing for 1.50%), keeping a December hike in play. The yen firmed to 157.1-157.7 but the New York close is unconfirmed, so the earlier value is kept.
EUR/USDAbout 1.114 (prior value held) ―[Prior value held] Closes are cited between 1.111 and 1.118. The ECB held its deposit rate at 2.5% on Oct. 29, and markets expect a December hike.
KOSPI5,730.74 (-3.48%) ▼[As of Fri 10/30 close] Fell 206.92 points to 5,730.74. Foreigners net sold 1.6172 trillion won on the main board. KOSDAQ closed at 724.38 (-3.83%).

Key relations

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