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World briefing — October 30, 2026

As of 2026-10-30

What changed since yesterday

World trends

War & Conflict

The main conflict development on Oct. 28 was the Oleshky local ceasefire holding: Russia's and Ukraine's ombudsmen reported no violations in its first 30 hours, and the truce is due to run to about Nov. 1. Fears of renewed US strikes on Iran lifted oil, but no new fighting was confirmed. Other conflicts saw no newly reported events, so earlier descriptions stand.

Geopolitics & Diplomacy

Congo's Ebola outbreak passed 10,000 confirmed cases (10,193; 4,960 deaths) with 50-80 new cases daily. Israel's double-envelope pool is now estimated at 430,000-480,000 ballots, with no change to the bloc picture. Iran called Qatar's ideas unacceptable, dampening optimism; its reply is due late this week. No sign yet of a deal on rare earths before the Nov. 10 expiry, ahead of Bulgaria's Nov. 1 runoff and the Nov. 3 US midterms.

Israel's election count, at 90%, shows Netanyahu's bloc on 53 seats, Eisenkot's bloc on 48 and Arab parties on a record 19, leaving neither side near 61. About 600,000 double-envelope ballots and the official results around Nov. 4 are the remaining variables, and coalition haggling or a new election looks likely.

Iran diplomacy has a new vehicle: a Qatari-mediated draft with a seven-day confidence-building timeline, which Tehran says it welcomes. Trump has said he will not strike before the Nov. 3 midterms, but the Hormuz crisis continues.

Six days before the US midterms, Trump's approval has fallen to 31% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll, and markets price Democrats at roughly 90% to win the House and about 63% for the Senate.

Europe is warming to direct talks with Russia as Washington moves closer to Putin, with US-Russia-Ukraine trilateral talks planned in Abu Dhabi in the first half of November.

US-China and sanctions: The suspension of China's rare-earth controls expires on 10 November with no extension announced, while the US-China trade truce runs to 10 January 2027. Trump issued an executive order on 16 October exempting application of the Graham sanctions act, and the EU widened its Russia sanctions on 12 October.

France: The 17 October nationwide protests drew about 550,000 by Interior Ministry count (800,000 by organisers), with further mobilisation planned for 24 and 31 October and a union strike on 5 November. No reliable count for the 24 October protests was found. The risk of a no-confidence vote over the 2027 budget continues for the Lecornu government.

Finance & Economy

Alphabet's plunge revived worries about AI spending returns, sending the Nasdaq down 1.38%, while the KOSPI lost 6,000 on Samsung's payout letdown. Strong GDP and PCE data keep December hike fears alive, with the 10-year near 5% and outlets disagreeing.

Fed holds in a 10-2 split but a December hike is priced at 80%-90%; the 10-year stays near 5%

SK hynix's record Q3 profit (83 trillion won) and 100 trillion won payout lift the KOSPI back above 6,000 (+6.63%)

Oil rebounds on US-Iran strike fears: WTI $102.78, Brent $115.32

Won drops 14 to 1,337.7 per dollar, its biggest one-day fall in five months, on FOMC caution and hedging demand

Bank of Canada hikes 25bp to 2.5% while the UK Budget draws a muted market reaction; inflation and oil drive policy

Investors await the ECB (Oct. 29), Samsung Electronics earnings (Oct. 29) and the BOJ (Oct. 30)

Tech & Energy

Big Tech diverges: Alphabet had its worst day on record on capex strain and negative free cash flow, Microsoft rose on Azure strength, Amazon fell after hours (preliminary). Memory supercycle: Samsung confirmed Q3 operating profit of 107.4 trillion won, with 2027 HBM4 supply sold out. Renewed doubts over AI investment returns pushed the Nasdaq down 1.38%.

Memory supercycle: SK hynix posts 83 trillion won quarterly profit; Samsung's full results due Oct. 29

Anthropic IPO timeline firms up: roadshow after Nov. 10, price still unset

Nov. 10 rare earth suspension expiry nears with no extension announced

Export controls: On 31 May the US closed a loophole to require advanced-chip licences for all companies headquartered in China (including Blackwell and Rubin), and for Nvidia's H200, even with US approval, China restricts mainland imports and steers users towards Hong Kong (FT report, August). No new measures were confirmed for 24-26 October.

Critical minerals: The suspension of China's expanded rare-earth controls expires on 10 November, but no extension or withdrawal has been announced yet. The truce has been extended to 10 January 2027 without explicitly naming rare earths, and the April 2025 controls remain in force. Whether the Commerce Ministry announces something soon is the main thing to watch.

Active conflicts

Key indicators

US Fed Funds Rate3.75%-4.00% ―[As of Thu 10/29 close] No change after the Oct. 28 hold (10-2 vote). December hike expectations persist; Q3 GDP of 3.4% annualized (vs 3.1%-3.2% expected) and September PCE inflation of 3.6% (core 3.1%) were released Oct. 29.
S&P 5007,720.39 (-0.30%) ▼[As of Thu 10/29 close] Regular-session close; the index snapped a three-day winning streak as Alphabet plunged more than 12%. Dow 52,342.56 (-0.25%). One outlet had 7,707.79 (-0.47%), but most agree on 7,720.39. Breadth was positive: the equal-weight index rose.
Nasdaq Composite26,184.72 (-1.38%) ▼[As of Thu 10/29 close] Down about 365 points (26,184.70-26,186.88 depending on outlet). Alphabet fell 12.64% to $283.82, its biggest one-day market-value loss, on AI spending worries; Microsoft slipped slightly despite a beat.
US 10-Year YieldAbout 4.94%-5.02% (outlets differ) ―[As of Thu 10/29 close] Reports conflict on the close: one outlet had the 10-year down 8bp to 4.94%, another up 2bp at 5.02%. Safe-haven demand after the Alphabet plunge competed with strong GDP and PCE data. The prior close of about 5.03% is carried until confirmed.
VIX Volatility Indexabout 16.9 ―[As of Thu 10/29 close] The 10/29 close is unconfirmed, so the 10/28 close of about 16.9 is carried. The VIX likely rose with the Nasdaq down 1.38%.
Crude Oil (WTI / Brent)WTI $102.00 (Dec) / Brent $114.88 ▼[As of Thu 10/29 settlement] WTI December settled at $102.00 (-0.76%) and Brent December at $114.88 (-0.38%) on signs of renewed US-Iran diplomacy.
GoldAbout $4,031/oz (COMEX Dec; single-source report) ―[As of Thu 10/29 close] Only a single-source report puts the COMEX December contract at $4,031.4 (-0.50%), so the prior close of about $4,052 is carried. The dollar index slipped 0.29% to 101.90.
BitcoinAbout $79,900 (afternoon KST on 10/29; daily close unconfirmed) ▼[As of Thu 10/29] Bitcoin slipped below $80,000 to $79,859 (-1.12% over 24 hours) around 4 p.m. KST on Oct. 29; the daily close is unconfirmed. Ether traded at $2,310 and US spot bitcoin ETFs took in $137.3 million.
KRW/USD1,336.8 won (Seoul 3:30 p.m. close, 10/29) ▼[As of Thu 10/29, Seoul 3:30 p.m. close] 1,336.8 won (-0.9), before the New York session's Alphabet rout and GDP release. A hold read as less hawkish nudged the won slightly higher.
JPY/USDAbout 157.7-158 yen (close unconfirmed) ―[As of Thu 10/29 close] The New York close is unconfirmed: around 158 in Asian hours, then 157.5-157.7 in later reports, while the Seoul cross rate implies the 159s. The prior value is carried. The BOJ is expected to hold on Oct. 30.
EUR/USDAbout 1.111-1.116 (close unconfirmed) ―[As of Thu 10/29 close] Closes differ by outlet, from $1.111 to $1.116 (Reuters-based reports -0.3% on the day, another +0.07%). The prior value is carried.
KOSPI5,937.66 (-1.24%) ▼[As of Thu 10/29 close] Fell 74.78 points, giving up 6,000 after a day (intraday high 6,100.11). Samsung Electronics posted a record Q3 operating profit of 107.44 trillion won (consensus 105.76 trillion) but deferred details of shareholder returns to January and fell 4.13% to 232,000 won; SK hynix rose 2.62%.

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