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World briefing — November 3, 2026

As of 2026-11-03

What changed since yesterday

World trends

War & Conflict

The Oleshky local ceasefire expired without extension at 22:59 Kyiv time on Nov. 1, and Russian attacks on Kherson resumed on Nov. 2 (provisional). Iran offered, under Qatari mediation, to reopen Hormuz within two days but has not answered Vance's letter. No new developments were confirmed in the remaining conflicts, so earlier descriptions stand.

Geopolitics & Diplomacy

The Oleshky local ceasefire expired without extension on the night of Nov. 1 and Russia resumed attacks on Kherson on Nov. 2 (Kyiv says Russia refused to extend; provisional). Iran, via Qatari mediation, offered to reopen Hormuz within two days if the US lifts its blockade and sanctions, but has not answered Vance's letter and rejects nuclear talks. Yotova's Bulgarian runoff win was confirmed at about 57.6%, Abu Dhabi trilateral talks are planned for the first half of November with no date, and the rare earth control suspension expires Nov. 10.

Israel's official count gave Netanyahu's bloc 53 seats, Eisenkot's opposition bloc 48 and Arab parties a record 19, leaving neither side at 61. Likud's unsupported claim that the vote was 'stolen' and Qatar's denial of funding Ra'am are fueling a dispute; final certification is due around Nov. 4. Congo's Ebola outbreak stood at 10,274 confirmed cases and 4,992 deaths as of Oct. 28, with 400-500 new cases a week. Next flashpoints are Bulgaria's Nov. 1 runoff, the Nov. 3 US midterms and the Nov. 10 expiry of China's rare-earth suspension.

With no bloc holding a majority, Israel faces coalition talks or a repeat election. Eisenkot's pledge to shun Arab parties complicates the math further.

Iran mediation is moving through Qatar. Vice President Vance sent a letter to Iranian security chief Rezaei proposing direct talks, and Qatar carried a revised US draft to Tehran on Oct. 30, but Iran has not replied and reports say its nuclear position is unchanged. Trump described the letter as about medical aid, so accounts differ. Reports of a tanker hit in Hormuz continue, with talk of possible US strikes after the midterms.

Four days before the US midterms, NPR and Marist polling favors Democrats. Trump's approval is 31% in Reuters/Ipsos and 38-40% in Marist, and Democrats lead the generic ballot by 8-12 points. In Brazil, Bolsonaro's Liberal Party accepted Lula's win, but Flavio Bolsonaro has hinted at seeking to annul it.

Ukraine diplomacy: Zelensky said he hopes for US-Russia-Ukraine technical talks in Abu Dhabi on Nov. 6-10, with timing now up to Washington. Putin agreed in principle to resume trilateral talks around Nov. 10 but offered no substantive concessions. In Oleshky, civilian evacuation has begun under the truce.

US-China and sanctions: The suspension of China's rare-earth controls expires on 10 November with no extension announced, while the US-China trade truce runs to 10 January 2027. Trump issued an executive order on 16 October exempting application of the Graham sanctions act, and the EU widened its Russia sanctions on 12 October.

Finance & Economy

On Nov. 2 oil plunged more than 7% on hopes from Iran-Qatar talks, sending WTI to $96.46, below $100 (January Brent $104.77; single report, provisional). US stocks extended the tech selloff, with the S&P 500 down 0.51% and the Nasdaq down 1.07% while the Dow rose on cheaper oil. KOSPI rebounded 2.24% to 5,859.08, regaining the 5,800 level, and the won weakened to 1,343.8 per dollar. The 10-year yield eased to around 4.90% (provisional). The Nov. 3 midterms and the reaction to Apple's results are the next catalysts.

The AI-tech selloff deepened. Intel's fourth-quarter guidance shock and Amazon's earnings letdown sent the Nasdaq down 2.86%, leaving it about 5% lower for October, its worst month since March 2025, while the KOSPI plunged 3.48% to the 5,700s. Gold fell to a 52-week low and oil hit a six-month high on reports of a tanker attack in Hormuz. Closes for the 10-year yield, yen and euro conflicted, so prior values were kept.

Expectations of a December Fed hike remain high after the 10-2 hold. The BOJ held at 1.25% on Oct. 30 by an 8-1 vote and the ECB held on Oct. 29, with December hikes in play at both.

Intel's slump (fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $15-16 billion) and Amazon's EPS miss and negative free cash flow (-$42.4 billion over 12 months) revived worries about AI-spending returns after Alphabet's plunge.

Oil at six-month highs: WTI $104.12, Brent $117.64 (expiring December contract) on reports of a tanker attack in Hormuz.

USD/KRW 1,334.3 won (Seoul 3:30 p.m.): fell despite the equity rout on dollar softness and month-end exporter selling, before the New York session.

Gold hit a 52-week low (COMEX December $3,898.90, -3.29%), while bitcoin slipped below $77,000 after a disclosed $6.3 billion Binance breach and risk-asset selling.

Tech & Energy

The Hormuz reopening hopes behind the oil slide spilled into gas markets. About 93% of Qatar's LNG exports pass through Hormuz with no bypass. The rare earth control suspension expires Nov. 10 with no formal extension announced; the US administration expects a routine extension. Anthropic is expected to start a roadshow in early November after its Oct. 26 S-1 filing, with pricing not yet set.

Big Tech results diverged. Amazon's AWS grew 39% to $46 billion, but about $220 billion of capex this year and negative free cash flow (-$42.4 billion) sent it down about 6% after hours (regular-session losses are reported differently), and Intel plunged on a weak fourth-quarter outlook. In memory, Samsung confirmed Q3 operating profit of 107.4 trillion won and a sold-out HBM4 supply for 2027, yet the KOSPI fell sharply on chip-stock selling.

Anthropic made its S-1 public on Oct. 26: first-half revenue of $16.3 billion, with a planned Nasdaq listing as 'ANT'. The roadshow is expected the week of Nov. 9 or later, with a listing targeted before Nov. 26 (provisional).

Apple reports fiscal fourth-quarter results on Monday, Nov. 2, the first under CEO John Ternus.

Energy: December Brent hit a six-month high of $117.64 on reports of a tanker attack in Hormuz and talk of US strikes on Iran after the midterms.

Export controls: On 31 May the US closed a loophole to require advanced-chip licences for all companies headquartered in China (including Blackwell and Rubin), and for Nvidia's H200, even with US approval, China restricts mainland imports and steers users towards Hong Kong (FT report, August). No new measures were confirmed for 24-26 October.

Critical minerals: The suspension of China's expanded rare-earth controls expires on 10 November, but no extension or withdrawal has been announced yet. The truce has been extended to 10 January 2027 without explicitly naming rare earths, and the April 2025 controls remain in force. Whether the Commerce Ministry announces something soon is the main thing to watch.

Active conflicts

Key indicators

US Fed Funds Rate3.75-4.00% ―[As of Mon 11/2 close] Unchanged since the Oct. 28 FOMC hold. Markets await Friday's jobs report and the December decision.
S&P 5007,541.40 (-0.51%) ▼[As of Mon 11/2 close] Fell ahead of the midterms and Apple earnings as the tech sell-off lingered. The Dow gained about 0.4% on the oil slide.
Nasdaq Composite25,164.32 (-1.07%) ▼[As of Mon 11/2 close] Tech weakness extended. Apple reported after the close; after-hours reaction reports conflict and are not confirmed.
US 10-Year Yieldabout 4.90% ▼[As of Mon 11/2 close] Down about 3bp to roughly 4.90%. The gap from the prior 5.03% reflects the Oct. 30 close (4.93-4.94%) now being incorporated; single-source, tentative. 2-year at 4.59%.
VIX Volatility Indexabout 19.5 ―[Carried from Fri 10/30 close] The Nov. 2 VIX close could not be confirmed.
Crude Oil (WTI / Brent)WTI $96.46 / Brent $104.77 (Brent January contract) ▼[As of Mon 11/2 close] Crude fell more than 7% on hopes from Iran-Qatar talks, pushing WTI below $100 (WTI -7.4%, Brent -7.6%). Brent's front month rolled to January from December (prior January contract: $113.43). Settlement from a single report; intraday reports put WTI at 96.9-97.4 and Brent near 106.2.
Goldabout $3,950/oz (COMEX futures) ▲[As of Mon 11/2 close] Rebounded more than 1% on a softer dollar and falling oil (about $3,947-3,950). Official December settlement not confirmed; tentative.
Bitcoinabout $77,900 ―[Carried from early Mon 11/2] A Nov. 2 closing figure could not be confirmed.
KRW/USDKRW 1,343.8 per dollar (Seoul 3:30 pm close, Nov. 2) ▲[As of Mon 11/2 close] Rose more than 9 won on foreign equity selling and overseas-investment dollar demand.
JPY/USDabout 157.9 yen ―[Intraday Mon 11/2] Steady near 157.93 yen. New York close not confirmed.
EUR/USDabout 1.114 ―[Prior value kept] Only intraday reports of the euro up about 0.3% on Nov. 2; no closing level confirmed. Dollar index 101.4-101.8.
KOSPI5,859.08 (+2.24%) ▲[As of Mon 11/2 close] Gained 128.34 points to recover the 5,800 level. Institutions bought about 1.2 trillion won; foreigners sold about 370 billion won.

Key relations

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