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World briefing — November 11, 2026

As of 2026-11-11

What changed since yesterday

World trends

War & Conflict

US-Russia-Ukraine trilateral talks resumed in Abu Dhabi on Nov. 10 after nine months and run through Nov. 11, hours after Russia struck Ukraine with one ballistic missile and 162 drones. Trump said the Iran war was 'effectively over' after meeting Qatar's prime minister, but Tehran denied any talks are planned and the US naval blockade remains in place. The Houthi-Saudi missile and airstrike exchange, El Salvador's offensive against Haitian gangs, drone warfare in Sudan's Kordofan and Blue Nile, and the Ethiopian army's capture of Sheraro continue.

Geopolitics & Diplomacy

Ukraine talks restart: US-mediated Russia-Ukraine talks opened in Abu Dhabi on Nov. 10, the first trilateral round since February. Security guarantees top the agenda and Zelensky called day one 'constructive', but territory is not expected to be resolved, and the air war continues alongside diplomacy, as the weekend barrage on Kyiv showed.

A shorter US-China truce: On Nov. 9 China extended its pause on expanded rare earth controls and on a 24% retaliatory tariff by two months, to Jan. 10, 2027. With the truce now running in two-month rather than one-year steps, the Trump-Xi meeting at the APEC summit in Shenzhen later this month becomes the next test.

Mixed signals on Iran: Qatar says both Washington and Tehran responded positively to its mediation, but Iran's security council denies any negotiations and says Hormuz stays shut until seven conditions are met. Trump talks of the war ending soon while keeping forces 'locked and loaded', leaving the strait's reopening uncertain.

Israel's transition begins: The 26th Knesset was sworn in on Nov. 10, and Eisenkot's bloc forced a vote to replace the speaker with 61 signatures. It still lacks a coalition majority, so Netanyahu stays on as caretaker, while strikes continue in Gaza and Lebanon despite ceasefires.

Midterm aftermath and allied calculations: Democrats lead the uncalled Senate counts in Mississippi (certification Nov. 13) and Alaska (ranked-choice tabulation from Nov. 18). Canada is pressing on with trade talks, arguing the Trump administration rather than Congress will decide trade deals.

Europe's fight over Ukraine funding: Merz tied his support for the EU's long-term budget to all members funding Ukraine, drawing fire from Slovakia and the Czech Republic, while Hungary's Magyar opposed the linkage in milder terms. A Coalition of the Willing meeting in Berlin on Nov. 19 is set to shape 2027 support.

Armed non-state threats and health crises: El Salvador's large deployment to Haiti (2,000-2,500 troops), Houthi-Saudi exchanges in Yemen and Pakistan-Taliban border clashes continue, while Congo's Ebola outbreak has passed 10,000 confirmed cases, the largest in the country's history.

Finance & Economy

U.S. October CPI rose 0.4% m/m, with core up 0.3%, each 0.1 point above forecasts. Core prices have now risen 0.3% or more in five of the year's first 10 months, and markets treated a hike at the Dec. 8-9 FOMC as all but certain. The debate has shifted from whether to hike to how much: 25bp or 50bp.

Bonds reacted most. The 10-year yield briefly topped 5% before ending near 4.99%, while the 2-year jumped more than 18bp. The dollar posted its best day since September, pushing the euro below $1.12 and the yen to around 158.7. COMEX December gold fell 1.8% to $4,039.20, erasing Monday's gain.

Stocks absorbed the shock relatively calmly. After Monday's surge, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell only 0.38% and 0.74%, and one tally shows the VIX holding below 20. But Nvidia's roughly 5% drop shows AI-chip nerves persist, with its Nov. 17 earnings the next test.

Asian markets rallied before the CPI release, tracking Monday's U.S. chip rebound. The KOSPI rose 4.39% to 5,239.13, reclaiming 5,200 as foreign investors turned net buyers for the first time in eight sessions. The Nikkei regained 60,000 and Taiwan's Taiex rose for a second day. The subsequent U.S. inflation shock and stronger dollar could weigh on Asian trade on Nov. 11.

Oil fell for a second day on hopes for U.S.-Iran talks. Brent settled at $91.49 after briefly dipping below $90 for the first time since August. Cheaper energy eases medium-term price pressure, but many analysts say it is not enough to offset the stickiness in services and core inflation shown by the CPI.

Bitcoin was the weakest risk asset, losing $74,000 and dipping to around $72,800, its lowest since August, as U.S. spot ETFs saw about $1.5 billion of outflows since Nov. 2. Meanwhile, Anthropic set an IPO range of $70-78 a share, valuing it at up to $1.4 trillion, targeting a Nov. 19 debut that will test appetite for AI.

Tech & Energy

Nvidia has been hit by leadership risk ahead of its Nov. 17 earnings. Its board opened an independent investigation on Nov. 8 into CEO Jensen Huang's relationship with a woman identified as a Chinese spy, and the shares fell about 4.3% on Nov. 9 and were reported down more than 5% on Nov. 10. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded sharply in the same period, leaving Nvidia moving against the market.

The affair has reignited the debate over AI chip exports to China. Reports said the administration may allow new controls on sales of advanced Nvidia chips to China, while the Commerce Department pursues rules such as blocking Chinese firms' remote access to chips abroad. The reports rely on anonymous sources and timing remains uncertain.

On rare earths, the truce has held for now. China's Commerce Ministry on Nov. 9 extended the pause on its expanded rare earth controls by two months to Jan. 10, 2027. The April licensing regime for medium and heavy rare earths remains, leaving Beijing with its supply-chain leverage, and a Trump-Xi meeting at the APEC summit in Shenzhen later this month is the next milestone.

AI fundraising is proceeding at lower valuation expectations. Anthropic set an IPO range of $70 to $78 a share on Nov. 10 and began its roadshow, with valuations cited between about $1 trillion and $1.4 trillion depending on the method. OpenAI was reported on Nov. 6 to have raised an initial $11 billion at a $1.25 trillion valuation, below the $1.5 trillion it had sought.

Memory and foundry stocks bounced after the rout. Samsung Electronics rose 4.74% and SK hynix 6.69% on Nov. 10, and TSMC's October revenue jumped 59.7% from a year earlier, showing AI demand remains intact. Morgan Stanley's steep target cuts and possible tighter China curbs remain risks for the HBM outlook.

In power and nuclear, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission issued a construction permit for four X-energy Xe-100 small modular reactors at Dow's Seadrift site in Texas, the first U.S. approval for an advanced reactor at an industrial site, underscoring the nuclear push tied to surging data center power demand.

Active conflicts

Key indicators

Fed policy rate3.75~4.00% ―[As of Tue 11/10] The rate is unchanged. October CPI rose 0.4% m/m (forecast 0.3%) and core 0.3% (forecast 0.2%), leaving a hike at the Dec. 8-9 FOMC all but fully priced. CME FedWatch put a 25bp hike at about 85% and a 50bp move at roughly 11-15%, depending on the snapshot. Governor Waller had said a half-point hike should be considered if core ran around 0.3%.
S&P 5007,520.93 (-0.38%) ▼[Tue 11/10 close] The index fell 29.01 points, giving back part of Monday's rally as a hotter-than-expected October CPI lifted Treasury yields and December rate-hike bets. Nvidia fell about 5%. The Dow ended at 52,231.89 (-0.30%, -157.86).
Nasdaq Composite25,065.88 (-0.74%) ▼[Tue 11/10 close] Tech stocks slipped after the inflation data, with Nvidia down about 5%. Nvidia reports earnings on Nov. 17.
US 10-year Treasury yield약 4.99% ▲[Tue 11/10] The yield briefly topped 5% after the hot October CPI, Waller's remarks and a soft $42 billion 10-year auction, ending around 4.99-5.00% (4.99% and 4.998% by different tallies). The 2-year jumped more than 18bp to the 4.7% area.
VIX volatility index19.92 (11/9 종가) ―[Mon 11/9 close retained] The Nov. 9 close is confirmed at 19.92 (down 5.72), consistent with a Nov. 6 close of 25.64. One tally has the VIX at 19.46 (-2.31%) on Tuesday, Nov. 10, holding below 20 despite the hot CPI, but that figure is not independently confirmed (single-source report).
Oil (WTI/Brent)WTI $86.04 / 브렌트 $91.49 (1월물) ▼[Tue 11/10 settlement] Brent fell 1.17% to $91.49 and WTI 0.93% to $86.04 after Trump said the Iran war could end 'fairly soon.' Brent briefly dipped below $90 intraday for the first time since August. Monday's WTI settlement is revised to $86.85.
Gold$4,039.20/oz (COMEX 12월물 정산가) ▼[Tue 11/10 COMEX December settlement] Gold fell 1.82% as the hotter-than-expected October CPI lifted the dollar and yields. The contract had settled 1% higher at $4,114.50 on Nov. 9, and traded as low as about $4,036 on Tuesday.
Bitcoin약 $73,900 ▼[24-hour trading, around 5 p.m. ET on 11/10] Bitcoin was near $73,800-73,900, down about 1.8% after the hot CPI, having dipped to $72,787-72,866 intraday, its lowest since August. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have seen about $1.5 billion of net outflows since Nov. 2.
USD/KRW1,337.5원 (11/10 서울 15:30 종가) ▼[Tue 11/10 Seoul 3:30 p.m. close] The won strengthened 9.6 won to 1,337.5, its strongest daytime close since Oct. 30 (1,334.3), helped by lower oil on Iran-talk hopes, improved risk appetite and exporter dollar sales. The Seoul close predates the U.S. CPI release, so the later dollar rally is not reflected.
USD/JPY약 158.7엔 ▲[Late New York trade, Tue 11/10] The dollar rose about 0.5% against the yen to around 158.7-158.8 as the hot CPI gave the greenback its best day since September. A 2.8% drop in Japan's September household spending also weighed on the yen.
EUR/USD약 1.116 ▼[Late New York trade, Tue 11/10] The euro fell about 0.5% after the CPI release, slipping below $1.12 to around $1.1156-1.1166. The dollar index rose to about 102.3, close to Friday's 102.279 finish.
KOSPI5,239.13 (+4.39%) ▲[Tue 11/10 regular-session close] The KOSPI snapped a losing streak to reclaim 5,200 on a rebound in U.S. chip stocks. Foreigners were net buyers of about 358.6 billion won (tallies range from 353.2 billion to 423.1 billion), ending seven straight sessions of net selling; institutions bought about 498 billion won. The KOSDAQ rose 4.48% to 667.61. The close came before the U.S. CPI release.

Key relations

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