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World briefing — November 12, 2026

As of 2026-11-12

What changed since yesterday

World trends

War & Conflict

The US-Russia-Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi ended on Nov. 11 with an agreement in principle on a large prisoner exchange but no breakthrough on territory or a ceasefire; US envoys meet Putin on Nov. 12 and then Zelenskyy. Russia launched 163 drones and Ukraine struck Russian territory as the talks went on. With US-Iran talks stalled, Washington set up Task Force Iron Gate to extend its blockade to Iran's land borders and the Caspian. The Houthis fired missiles at Riyadh for a second straight day, Gaza faces strikes and floods, and a junta airstrike on a school in Myanmar's Sagaing Region killed 11, including four children.

Geopolitics & Diplomacy

The last pieces of the US midterms are falling into place. In Mississippi, affidavit ballots pushed Scott Colom's lead to 4,585 votes and CNN and CBS projected him the winner, though an AP call, the Nov. 13 state certification and a possible Hyde-Smith legal challenge are still pending. In Alaska, Mary Peltola leads by 4,250 first-choice votes, but ranked-choice tabulation after Nov. 18 will decide the race.

Ukraine diplomacy yielded only humanitarian gains. The Nov. 10-11 trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi ended with agreement in principle on a large prisoner swap and no progress on territory, security guarantees or a ceasefire. In Europe, Hungary, Slovakia, Czechia and Bulgaria are resisting Chancellor Merz's bid to tie the EU budget to Ukraine aid, making the Nov. 12-13 informal summit in Dublin a test.

In the Middle East, diplomacy and attacks run in parallel. Iran sent a seven-condition reply via Qatar and awaits Washington's answer, while insisting Hormuz will never return to its pre-war status. The Houthis kept firing missiles at Riyadh, and Gaza's post-ceasefire death toll rose to 1,622. In Israel, the Nov. 17 vote to replace the Knesset speaker is the anti-Netanyahu bloc's first test.

In East Asia, Washington pressed Beijing on rare earth and farm commitments ahead of next week's Trump-Xi meeting at APEC in Shenzhen (Nov. 18-19), while China pressured Taiwan with carrier-led drills in the Western Pacific. North Korea published a revised constitution that drops unification clauses and names the Republic of Korea as its southern border, codifying its 'two states' line.

The political map in Europe and the Americas is shifting. Serbia's new parliament convenes on Nov. 17, starting government formation for the Student List with 140 seats, and Spain's official campaign opens on Nov. 13. In Paraguay, President Pena was impeached and charged over the Ueno Bank collapse; in Venezuela, Machado endorsed a phased US election roadmap. In Haiti, El Salvador's independent offensive is causing friction with US diplomats over coordination.

On health and disasters, Congo's Ebola outbreak has passed 11,000 confirmed cases and 5,300 deaths with no sign of decline, while Kenya and Nigeria, with no new cases, are moving toward the end-of-outbreak countdown. In northern Ethiopia, fighting between federal and Tigrayan forces continues, and the G7 warned of rising Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions.

Finance & Economy

U.S. bond markets were closed for Veterans Day on Wednesday, Nov. 11, while stocks traded normally. The 10-year yield remains at its Nov. 10 level near 4.99%, and the bond market's further reaction to the CPI shock will show when trading resumes on Nov. 12.

Equities shrugged off the inflation scare within a day. CoreWeave's results revived the AI trade, lifting the S&P 500 1.31% to 7,619.38 and the Nasdaq 1.60% to 25,466.19, erasing its post-election losses. Micron jumped about 12%, Nvidia rebounded about 2.9% and the VIX fell 10% to 17.49. Nvidia's Nov. 17 earnings and Anthropic's Nov. 19 listing are the next tests.

Currency markets, by contrast, kept pricing tighter policy. With a December quarter-point hike fully priced and half-point odds near 12%, the dollar index rose to 102.90, its highest since April 2025. The dollar climbed to about 159.8 yen, near the 160 level that has drawn Japanese intervention, and the euro slipped to around $1.11.

Gold fell for a second day on the stronger dollar and hike expectations, with COMEX December settling near $4,000 (tallies range from $3,994 to $4,001). Bitcoin moved sideways in the $73,000s, and November net outflows from U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs rose to about $1.6 billion.

Asian markets held up despite the CPI shock, led by chips. The KOSPI rose 2.60% to 5,375.36 on foreign buying and the KOSDAQ surged 5.62% back above 700, while the won firmed to 1,333.6 per dollar, its strongest since Oct. 27. The Nikkei rose for a third day to 61,248.59 and Shanghai gained, but the Hang Seng fell about 1%. In Europe, the STOXX 600 posted a record close.

Oil snapped a two-day slide. Brent rose 1.4% to $92.76 after Iran denied talks and said enriched nuclear material would stay in the country. The EIA sees Brent near $100 through year-end, meaning energy-driven inflation could again complicate the Fed's tightening path.

Tech & Energy

The Nvidia affair has moved from an investigation to a question of control. The Wall Street Journal reported on Nov. 11 that the board is preparing to oust CEO Jensen Huang, and The New York Times reported a second relationship with a company executive. The stock rebounded 2.87% in regular trading on Nov. 11 after two days of losses, then fell sharply after hours. Earnings on Nov. 17 now arrive under a cloud of leadership uncertainty.

Washington's pressure is converging on China chip exports. The chairmen of the House Foreign Affairs, China Select and Intelligence committees have asked Huang to attend a closed-door briefing on Nov. 18 and floated a subpoena, while calls for his resignation and moves to tighten AI chip exports to China are growing. Because the board's probe overlaps with suspicions that chips were diverted through Megaspeed, Nvidia's entire China business is now exposed to political risk.

AI fundraising, by contrast, is running hot. Anthropic's IPO is reported to be multiple times oversubscribed, and underwriters are said to be weighing pricing above the $70-$78 range. Valuation estimates range from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion depending on the source, making the Nov. 18 pricing and Nov. 19 debut a test of AI sentiment.

Key supply-chain players are becoming shareholders in AI model makers. TSMC will invest up to $500 million each in Anthropic's IPO shares and OpenAI preferred stock, and Nvidia and Alphabet are reported to be buying large stakes alongside Anthropic's listing, further entangling chip suppliers with their customers.

Korean memory stocks rose for a second day. On Nov. 11 Samsung Electronics closed up 3.57% at 206,000 won and SK Hynix up 5.36% at 1,277,000 won, lifting the KOSPI 2.60% to 5,375.36. CoreWeave's results and anticipation of Anthropic's IPO outweighed the U.S. inflation shock, but Nvidia's leadership turmoil and tighter China controls remain risks for HBM demand.

Resource and energy fronts remain tense. China's October rare earth exports rose 1% from a year earlier, but January-October shipments were down 8.7% and the licensing regime stays in place. In Hormuz, claims of mine and projectile strikes on ships pushed Brent back to around $92 from a two-month low. With the IEA warning that the diesel squeeze could last into 2027, its November Oil Market Report on Nov. 13 is the next checkpoint.

Active conflicts

Key indicators

Fed policy rate3.75~4.00% ―[As of Wed 11/11] The rate is unchanged. After the hot October CPI, markets fully priced a 25bp hike at the Dec. 8-9 FOMC, while CME FedWatch put the odds of a 50bp move at about 11.5-12.9% depending on the snapshot, up from about 1% before the data. Governor Waller floated a half-point move, saying a quarter-point hike alone could put the Fed's credibility at risk, and Dallas Fed President Logan has called for at least two more increases.
S&P 5007,619.38 (+1.31%) ▲[Wed 11/11 close] The index rose 98.45 points as CoreWeave's results revived the AI trade and every Philadelphia semiconductor index member finished higher. Nvidia rebounded about 2.9% despite a Baird downgrade. The Dow closed at 52,486.49 (+0.49%). Stocks traded normally on Veterans Day while the bond market was closed.
Nasdaq Composite25,466.19 (+1.60%) ▲[Wed 11/11 close] The Composite added about 400 points, erasing its post-election losses. The Nasdaq-100 gained about 2.3%, with Micron up about 12% and Broadcom about 4%. Nvidia reports on Nov. 17.
US 10-year Treasury yieldAbout 4.99% (as of 11/10) ―[Tue 11/10 level retained] The U.S. bond market was closed on Wednesday, Nov. 11, for Veterans Day, while stocks traded normally. On Nov. 10 the yield briefly topped 5% after the hot October CPI and a soft 10-year auction before ending near 4.99%. Trading resumes Nov. 12.
VIX volatility index17.49 (-10.12%) ▼[Wed 11/11 close] The VIX fell 1.97 points to a one-week low, its fourth straight decline. The Nov. 10 close of 19.46 is now confirmed by multiple tallies. One tally shows 17.54 (-9.85%).
Oil (WTI/Brent)WTI $86.53 / Brent $92.76 ▲[Wed 11/11 settlement] Prices bounced from two-month lows: Brent (January) rose 1.4% to $92.76 and WTI (December) 0.6% to $86.53. Iran's top security body said enriched material would stay in the country and denied talks with Washington, cooling hopes of quick de-escalation. Brent and WTI had fallen about 21% and 17% since the start of November.
Gold$4,039.20/oz (Nov. 10 COMEX December settlement) ―[Tue 11/10 settlement retained] Reported Nov. 11 settlements for COMEX December gold differ by source, at $4,000.50 (-0.7%) and $3,994.20 (-0.89%), so the Nov. 10 settlement is retained. Gold rose as high as $4,066.77 intraday before spot slipped to around $3,983, below $4,000, as the dollar index hit its highest since April 2025. Expectations of a December rate hike weigh on the metal.
Bitcoin약 $73,800 ―[24-hour trading, afternoon ET on 11/11] Bitcoin hovered around $73,500-73,900 after a post-CPI low of $72,727. U.S. spot ETFs saw about $95 million of net outflows on Nov. 10, bringing November outflows to roughly $1.6 billion, according to SoSoValue.
USD/KRW1,333.6 won (Seoul 3:30 p.m. close, 11/11) ▼[Wed 11/11 Seoul 3:30 p.m. close] The won opened weaker at 1,343.5 after the U.S. CPI shock but strengthened 3.9 won to 1,333.6 on offshore dollar selling, exporter sales and foreign stock buying, its third straight gain and strongest close since Oct. 27 (1,323.7). The Seoul close predates the dollar's further gains in New York.
USD/JPYAbout 159.8 yen ▲[Late New York trade, Wed 11/11] The dollar rose about 0.7% to 159.84-159.85 yen, its highest since Sept. 2, closing in on the 160 mark. Holiday-thinned liquidity with U.S. bond markets shut has raised the risk of Japanese intervention.
EUR/USD약 1.11 ▼[Late New York trade, Wed 11/11] The euro fell about 0.7% to around $1.11, touching $1.1083, its lowest since May 2025. The dollar index rose 0.68% to 102.90, its highest since April 2025.
KOSPI5,375.36 (+2.60%) ▲[Wed 11/11 regular-session close] The KOSPI opened 0.56% lower at 5,209.71 on the U.S. CPI shock but rallied 136.23 points on foreign buying to close near its intraday high of 5,377.99. Foreign net purchases were about 670-776 billion won depending on the tally, while institutions and individuals were net sellers. SK hynix rose 5.36% and Samsung Electronics 3.57%. The KOSDAQ surged 5.62% to 705.10, back above 700, triggering a buy-side sidecar.

Key relations

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